Brazil Says US Took Sides in 25 Oct Runoff
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and one of the biggest trading partners the United States has in the region.
- What happened On Wednesday 21 October 2026, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said Donald Trump’s government took part in Brazil’s election and took a side.
- The speaker Vieira runs the foreign ministry, known as Itamaraty, and is a career diplomat of about 50 years.
- The target He criticised a letter from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that welcomed a transition team offered by the conservative candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
- The vote Brazil holds its presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026 between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (21 October, 3:52 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 22%), as of 21 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
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Brazil’s foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, said on Wednesday 21 October 2026 that the US took sides in the Brazil election 2026 runoff. It is rare for a sitting minister of a major US trading partner to say this about Washington days before voters go to the polls.
The remarks, made to O Estado de S. Paulo, put Washington inside a race the latest Brazil election polls call close. Brazil election odds favour Flávio, and the Brazil runoff date is Sunday 25 October.
What the Foreign Minister Said
Vieira told the newspaper Estado, in an interview reported by Poder360 on 21 October, that Trump government representatives took part in the Brazilian elections. Asked whether he saw concrete US interference, he said they took a side and posed for photographs.
He added that the press is full of reports about manipulated algorithms in messages. He said Brazilian voters must decide at the ballot box whether they see that as interference.
The Rubio Letter and the Transition Team
Vieira objected to a letter from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the top US diplomat. The letter welcomed Flávio Bolsonaro’s offer to put a transition team at the disposal of the US government if he wins.
The O Povo newspaper reported on 1 July 2026 that the letter was dated 23 June. It reiterated US tariffs on Brazilian goods and thanked Flávio for his support for labelling Brazilian criminal gangs as terrorist groups.
Vieira said that in 50 years as a diplomat he had never seen any country do this, and called it a very bad sign. He argued that a transition team working with a foreign country would mean handing matters over early and submitting to it.
Why the Row Reaches Washington
The claim that the US took sides lands in the State Department, the US foreign ministry, and Rubio is its chief. When a foreign minister says the US took sides, the dispute becomes a diplomatic matter between two governments.
The two countries have argued over tariffs this year, as our report on Brazil’s tariff retaliation options shows. The new remarks tie the trade fight directly to the election.
The Eduardo Bolsonaro Threat
Vieira also answered a claim by Eduardo Bolsonaro, a former congressman and Flávio’s brother. Eduardo said that if Flávio wins, there will be a purge, a faxina in Portuguese, inside Itamaraty.
Vieira called that threat terrible and said democracy calls for dialogue. Asked why he did not say more, he answered that he has other things to do.
He said he does not know Eduardo and described him as someone who calls for scorched earth and tariffs. He concluded that Brazilians must decide where the national interest lies.
The Earlier Complaint Against Flávio
Lula’s Workers’ Party, known as the PT, filed a criminal complaint on 30 June 2026 with the Prosecutor General’s Office, according to O Povo. It asked prosecutors to examine whether the letter showed direct dealings between a Brazilian senator and a foreign power.
The complaint also asked for the full text of Rubio’s letter and of Flávio’s own message to him. O Povo did not report a reply from Flávio to the filing.
What It Means for US Readers
The claim that the US took sides matters because a runoff win will shape how Washington deals with Brazil on tariffs and trade. Flávio’s camp has sought closer ties with the Trump administration, while Lula’s government has pushed back in public.
Investors who hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or the real should watch the tone between the two capitals after Sunday. Any new US statement before the vote could add to a campaign that is already tense.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro 78.8% to win the runoff and Lula 21.5% (21 October, 3:52 p.m. ET). Flávio’s price rose 1.0 point over 24 hours.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$190.8 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 21 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The interview as reported gives no response from the US government or from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. It is unclear whether either side will answer before Sunday.
Vieira did not name which US officials he meant or show how the US took sides in practice. It is also unclear whether the photographs he mentioned relate to a specific meeting.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Brazil’s foreign minister say about the United States?
Mauro Vieira said Donald Trump’s government took part in the Brazilian elections and took a side. He added that voters should judge at the ballot box whether that counts as interference.
What is the Rubio letter he criticised?
It is a letter from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Flávio Bolsonaro, dated 23 June according to O Povo. It welcomed his offer of a transition team and restated US tariffs on Brazilian products.
When is the Brazil runoff?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October 2026 in a presidential runoff between President Lula and the conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Both candidates reached the second round after the first vote.
Why does the foreign minister’s statement matter to Americans?
It shows a Brazilian cabinet minister publicly saying the US took sides, an accusation aimed at the Trump administration. It can affect trade talks, tariffs and investor sentiment in the days around the vote.
Who is Eduardo Bolsonaro?
He is a former congressman and the brother of Flávio Bolsonaro, and the son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro. He said a Flávio government would purge the foreign ministry, which Vieira criticised.
Sources: Poder360 (Estado interview), 21 October 2026; O Povo, 1 July 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief