Brazil elections 2022: Lula da Silva has 44% vs. Bolsonaro’s 36% in the first round – survey July 3 to 5

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The survey conducted by PoderData from July 3 to 5, 2022 shows that the presidential succession scenario remains stable, centered on the leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the conservative Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Today, Lula is at 44% of the electoral vote compared to 36% for the current president.

Two weeks ago, they were 44% and 34%, respectively. The vote for Bolsonaro is up 2 percentage points – within the poll’s margin of error (2 percentage points).

The other primaries account for a total of 11% of voting intentions. Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 5%; André Janones (Avante) and Simone Tebet (MDB) each have 3%. Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Novo), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Eymael (DC), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) did not have enough mentions to score.

A candidate for president wins the race in the first round if he or she receives at least 50% plus one of the valid votes, that is, the votes given to the candidates (excluding white and invalid votes).

With 44%, Lula da Silva is three percentage points behind the total of his opponents, who have 47% of the electoral intentions. This is a technical tie, considering the margin of error of two percentage points up or down.

Two weeks ago, the difference was 1 percentage point – 44% for Lula da Silva versus 45% for the other pre-election candidates.

STRATIFICATION

Lula da Silva has his best showing in the Northeast (56% vs. 30% for President); Bolsonaro in the North (56%; Lula has 36%). In the other regions, the two are technically tied.

Lula da Silva continues to have a significant lead over Bolsonaro among women, young people, and low-income people, while Bolsonaro has his best result among those earning 5 or more salaries.

In recent PowerData rounds, Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro were consistently tied in the Southeast region, which has more voters.

With information from PoderData360

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