Bolsonaro Distances Himself from Chamber Leadership Dispute, Upsetting Centrão

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – As tension mounts over the choice of a successor of Rodrigo Maia as President of the Chamber of Deputies, President Jair Bolsonaro stepped on the brake and decided to avoid, at least for the time being, gestures that could influence the fight for the leadership of the lower house of Congress.

The President told close advisors that, at this point, he will follow the political gambits as a mere observer.

However, he did not rule out the chance of changing his position and supporting one of the candidates on the eve of the election in February next year. The next Chamber president will be in charge during the 2022 electoral period, when Bolsonaro is expected to seek re-election to the Planalto.

Until then, according to Bolsonarist deputies, the President had been working discreetly to strengthen the leader of the PP party, federal deputy Arthur Lira, in a gesture aimed at consolidating an allied base.

Despite having stated that he would absent himself from the dispute, Bolsonaro does not hide his intention of seeking a name he trusts to replace Maia, someone who acts in the approval of government agenda items.

The President’s strategic retreat was suggested by cabinet members after the withdrawal of the DEM (Democrats) and the MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement) parties from the so-called ‘blocão’ (big party bloc).

Although the stampede was considered a normal occurrence by political leaders involved in the process, the event led the Planalto Palace to take stock after it upset legislators from the PP and PL (Liberal Party), who remain in the group.

The wrath of PP deputies was such that they suggested to the President’s aides that he should consider removing positions that the two dissident parties now hold in the federal government, if they fail to vote along with the Planalto.

However, Bolsonaro decided not to change anything. Together, DEM and MDB total 63 federal deputies. The palace advisors’ assessment is simple: should he decide to attack these two parties, the President would run the risk of losing the votes required to achieve a majority in the Lower House.

A pragmatic reading reassures the Executive: so far, both parties have been majority voters siding with the government on the economic agenda.

This assessment was reiterated by the Government Secretary General Luiz Eduardo Ramos to the MDB leader, deputy Baleia Rossi, and to the DEM leader, deputy Efraim Filho.

In recent weeks, Ramos managed to retain both parties’ support and secured victories for the government, such as the passing of amendments to the law on ports and the provisional measure that provides for transfers of R$3 billion to the cultural sector.

However, in other areas, such as customs, support is not as assured. Consequently, any kind of retaliation against MDB and DEM could undermine a relationship that has now become more distant.

Bolsonaro is also concerned about votes to override presidential vetos. Although he relies on little inclination from the president of Congress, Senator Davi Alcolumbre, to schedule the vote on vetoes, the President has upset legislators with the latest strokes of his pen.

One in particular, the public sanitation framework law, led legislators to argue for the overturning of the presidential veto, on the grounds that the government had breached the agreement reached to pass the text.

The list of vetoes the government is concerned about includes 17 sectors’ payroll cuts and R$8 billion to fight the Coronavirus pandemic.

In addition, Bolsonaro’s retreat is based on an assessment by party leaders that Maia has been successful in securing support, both from the left-wing and the centre, to elect a candidate from his political group.

The deputy has not yet decided on a name, but even government officials say there is a good chance that the deputy will name an ally to the post.

The consideration is that if Bolsonaro continues to embrace Lira’s candidacy, he could repeat his predecessor Dilma Rousseff’s (Worker’s Party – PT) mistake and find himself in a bad place if the PP leader is defeated. In early 2015, Rousseff endorsed the name of Arlindo Chinaglia (PT), who was ultimately defeated by Eduardo Cunha (MDB). At the end of that year, the legislator authorized the opening of impeachment proceedings against Dilma.

“I think it’s best to let the Chamber decide what is the best solution for itself. Every time, in the recent past, a president has meddled in this, it wasn’t good,” said Vice-president Hamilton Mourão.

The “blocão” was set up earlier this year to define the composition of the Joint Budget Committee. It was made up of PL, PP, PSD, MDB, DEM, Solidarity, PTB, PROS and Avante.

Initially, the PSL party was also part of it, but left. In addition, the Republicans, a Centrão party, is not part of the bloc. In all, the bloc included 221 legislators, among them many from the centrão, linked to parties like PP, PTB, Solidarity and PL.

The Planalto Palace dreamed of having a support bloc between 250 and 300 deputies, but it may end up with little more than the votes required to rescue Bolsonaro from a potential impeachment request.

The news that DEM and MDB decided to leave the blocão came to light in late July. In addition to them, the PROS and PTB are expected to leave the group. The plan is to form another official bloc with the PSL, President Bolsonaro’s former party.

Although it had been expected and was downplayed by both Maia and Lira, these players’ exit from the group upset members of the centrão. The PP leader reported to people close to him that he perceived in their timing an attempt to undermine the group.

Despite their denial, DEM and MDB aim to weaken support for Lira and are sidling up to some parties opposed to Bolsonaro, which now hold 133 votes in the Chamber.

With them, the group has a better chance of building a majority in the House and secure Maia’s successor. Lira is seen as a potential candidate to succeed the current Chamber president.

The PP deputy took the bloc’s weight to negotiate with the government at a time when Bolsonaro was weakened by the delay in reacting to the advancing pandemic and the impact of the Fabrício Queiroz scandal.

By betting on Lira, the federal government tried to undermine Maia’s leadership and create a favorable scenario for his successor to be more favorable to the Bolsonarist agenda, according to Planalto officials.

For Bolsonaro’s advisers, Maia’s control of the agenda and the strategic flaws in political coordination provided the Chamber president with a chance to succeed and restored him as a leading player in the House, which is now evidenced by the latest DEM and MDB moves.

Source: Folhapress