Bitcoin Holds Above $104,000 as Market Faces Critical Test

Bitcoin started June 5, 2025, trading just above $104,800, after a night of sideways movement and cautious sentiment. The cryptocurrency continues to move in a tight range, with the chart showing a clear squeeze between major support and resistance levels.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin traded between $104,050 and $105,275, as shown by the latest 4-hour candlestick chart. Technical indicators point to a market at a crossroads.

The 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, drawn in blue, sits just below the current price and acts as a key support. Bitcoin has tested this line several times in the past days but has not closed below it, signaling that buyers are still defending this level.

The Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands both show price compressing, with the cloud acting as overhead resistance and the bands narrowing, which often precedes a breakout.

The most commonly used technical indicators reflect a market lacking clear direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 52–53, which is neutral and signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently turned negative, with red histogram bars growing below the baseline, indicating that bearish momentum is building. Analysts widely agree that the $107,500 level is the next critical resistance.

A break above this could trigger a new rally, while failure to hold above $104,000 could open the door to deeper losses, possibly toward $100,000 or even $97,000 if selling accelerates.

Recent price action follows a strong rally earlier in the year, when Bitcoin surged to nearly $112,000 on the back of ETF approvals and robust institutional inflows.

However, profit-taking and renewed macroeconomic uncertainty—especially around global inflation and central bank policy—have led to a pullback and a period of consolidation.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders continue to accumulate, with over 20,000 BTC withdrawn from major exchanges in the last two days. This behavior suggests that experienced investors remain confident, even as short-term traders hesitate.

ETF flows remain a key factor. After a period of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $378 million in inflows on June 3, indicating some return of institutional demand.

However, analysts caution that the market remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite, especially as Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.65, highlighting the influence of traditional finance sentiment.

The broader context matters for business and investors alike. Bitcoin’s current consolidation reflects a market searching for direction amid global economic uncertainty.

The technical setup shows that a decisive move—either above $107,500 or below $104,000—will likely set the tone for the next phase. For now, traders and investors should watch these levels closely, as the outcome will shape not only Bitcoin’s path but also the mood across the wider cryptocurrency market.

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