Mexico’s Central Bank, Banxico, recently updated its economic growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, showing optimism.
This positive revision reflects stronger-than-expected external demand and increased domestic spending.
In their latest third-quarter inflation report, Banxico predicts Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 3.3% in 2023, a growth higher than the initial 3.0% forecast.
The outlook for 2024 is also promising, with an anticipated GDP expansion of 3.0%, surpassing the previous 2.1% estimate.
Despite a probable deceleration in external demand by 2024, Banxico predicts the year’s growth will be solid, bolstered by internal spending.
However, the forecast for 2025 indicates a growth rate below the historical average, reflecting a shift in the balance between external and internal demand.
The bank projects a 1.5% GDP growth for Mexico in 2025.
Potential Risks
Banxico also identified potential risks that could impact the Mexican economy.
These include a decline in external demand, notably if the United States experiences a prolonged, severe recession.
The possibility of disruptions in international trade amid various global geopolitical and commercial tensions was also highlighted as a concern.
Despite these risks, Banxico remains confident in the resilience of Mexico’s economy, primarily fueled by domestic expenditure.
The Mexican economy, ranking second in size in Latin America after Brazil, showed a 3.9% growth in 2022, as per the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Looking ahead, the Mexican Government projects an economic growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.5% for the nation in the years 2023 and 2024.
These projections suggest a continuing trend of economic recovery and stability for Mexico.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
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