Argentina’s MERVAL Rises but YPF Ruling and Soy Tax Hike Cast Long Shadows

Argentina’s S&P MERVAL Index closed July 1, 2025, at 2,031,093.18, up 1.82% for the day. This marked its largest one-day gain since June 24, but the index remains 28% below its January peak.

The market’s rebound followed a period of heavy selling, with the previous session closing at 1,994,824.53, down 2.27%. The latest move came amid a storm of fundamental and legal shocks, as official data and charts confirm.

A U.S. court ruling on June 30 ordered Argentina to surrender its 51% stake in YPF to settle a $16.1 billion debt. The decision immediately hit YPF’s U.S.-listed shares, which fell 1.4%.

The ruling threatens Argentina’s control over the Vaca Muerta shale basin, a key pillar of its energy ambitions. The court rejected Argentina’s claim of sovereign immunity and allowed enforcement against YPF shares, even if it violates domestic law.

This legal blow raises risks for foreign investors and jeopardizes financing for the $3 billion Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, critical for future exports. President Milei blamed the 2012 nationalization of YPF for the current crisis.

The political fallout and legal uncertainty now threaten Argentina’s broader energy strategy. Major partners like Chevron and Shell face new risks as banks may hesitate to finance projects with unresolved ownership.

At the same time, the government raised the soybean export tax to 33% on July 1. This triggered a rush of exports in June, with 4.71 million tonnes sold in the first 18 days, generating $4 billion in foreign exchange.

The arbitrage window closed abruptly, leaving agribusiness and logistics firms exposed to a post-hike correction. Farmers now face a profitability squeeze, while logistics and export firms benefited from the pre-hike surge.

On the technical side, the daily chart shows the MERVAL below its 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages, signaling a persistent downtrend. The RSI sits at 41.58, indicating weak momentum but not oversold territory.

The MACD remains negative, with no bullish crossover. Bollinger Bands show the index trading near the lower band, reflecting ongoing volatility. Key resistance stands at 2,031,000 and 2,099,000, with support at 1,954,000.

The 4-hour chart offers little relief. The RSI is slightly higher at 44.36 but remains below 50. The MACD histogram is less negative but does not signal a reversal.

The price remains capped by the descending 50-period moving average, while the Ichimoku cloud sits overhead, reinforcing resistance. Top losers in this window include YPF, agribusiness exporters, and industrial manufacturers, all hurt by legal and policy shocks.

Winners are logistics firms and select banks, which gained from the export rush and trading volumes. Compared to Brazil’s Bovespa, which traded flat, and global peers that edged higher, Argentina’s market remains hampered by sovereign risk.

It also faces significant challenges due to policy uncertainty. The MERVAL’s technicals and fundamentals both urge caution as legal and fiscal headwinds persist.