Argentina’s MERVAL Falters as Technical Signals Warn of Persistent Downtrend

The S&P MERVAL Index closed the session at 1,994,824.53, down 2.27%, as official trading data and charts from TradingView show.

This marked another day of losses for Argentina’s main equity benchmark, which struggled to find support amid local and global uncertainties. Investors saw little relief as the market failed to recover from last week’s sharp declines.

The charts reveal a market under pressure. On the daily timeframe, the MERVAL sits well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. These averages all slope downward, confirming a persistent bearish trend.

The 200-day moving average, a key long-term indicator, stands above 2,045,000, while the index remains trapped under 2,000,000. Sellers have dominated the tape, and buyers have not shown conviction.

Bollinger Bands on both the daily and four-hour charts show the index riding the lower band, highlighting sustained selling and increased volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads near 37, which signals oversold conditions but not yet a reversal.

The MACD indicator remains negative, with the signal line below the zero mark and no bullish crossover in sight. Momentum remains weak, and technicals offer little hope for a near-term bounce.

Volume analysis confirms the lack of enthusiasm. Trading volumes remain subdued compared to earlier in the year, which suggests that institutional investors have not returned in force.

The market’s inability to attract meaningful inflows further weighs on sentiment. Top losers in the session included YPF, which fell sharply after a U.S. court ordered Argentina to hand over its controlling stake in the company.

This legal setback added to the market’s woes, as YPF lost more than 5%. Other significant laggards included major banks and industrials, which dropped by 2% to 4% as investors rotated out of riskier assets.

The top winners, in contrast, were limited to defensive names such as Laboratorios Richmond and Telecom Argentina, which managed modest gains of less than 1%.

Benchmarking the MERVAL against regional peers tells a clear story. While Brazil’s Bovespa and Chile’s IPSA posted small gains, Argentina’s market lagged behind. Investors continue to price in political risk, legal uncertainty, and the impact of high inflation on corporate earnings.

Technical analysis and hard data point to a market struggling for direction. The persistent downtrend, weak momentum, and lack of volume suggest that the path of least resistance remains lower.

Only a decisive break above the key moving averages, confirmed by stronger volume and a shift in momentum indicators, would signal a change in trend. For now, the MERVAL remains under pressure, with traders watching for any signs of stabilization.