Chilean Peso Strengthens as Technical and Fundamental Forces Align

The Chilean peso gained ground against the US dollar over the past 24 hours, closing at 931.62 CLP per USD, according to official Pepperstone data published July 1, 2025.

This move followed a daily decline of 8.22 pesos, or 0.87%, reflecting a broader trend that has persisted throughout the year. The peso’s advance came as traders responded to both technical signals and macroeconomic fundamentals.

The day’s trading was marked by a decisive break below key resistance levels. The technical picture shows the USD/CLP pair trading below major moving averages, including the 50, 100, and 200-period lines, on both the 4-hour and daily charts.

This alignment points to a bearish trend for the dollar and a strengthening peso. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits near 45, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but suggesting persistent downward momentum for the dollar.

The MACD indicator remains negative, with the signal line above the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting reduced volatility, while the price has moved toward the lower band, often a sign of continued pressure on the dollar.

Market participants observed that the peso’s strength coincided with steady copper prices, which remain a key driver for Chile’s currency. Chile’s role as the world’s largest copper exporter means the peso reacts strongly to shifts in global demand for the metal.

Copper Strength Supports Chilean Peso Amid Steady Economic Data

Over the past day, copper prices held firm, supporting the peso and attracting foreign currency inflows. Macroeconomic data from China, Chile’s principal trading partner, also played a role.

Recent figures showed improved industrial production and retail sales, which bolstered sentiment for commodity-linked currencies like the peso.

The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to maintain its benchmark rate at 5.0% provided further support, as the rate differential with the US Federal Reserve attracted carry trade interest.

Traders noted that volumes remained consistent with recent averages, and no significant ETF inflows or outflows were reported during the session. The lack of extreme volume spikes suggested that the move stemmed from steady institutional flows rather than speculative surges.

Looking ahead, technical analysts will watch the 928 and 940 levels closely as support and resistance, respectively. A sustained move below 928 could open the door for further peso gains, while a reversal above 940 might signal a pause in the trend.

For now, the peso’s performance reflects a confluence of technical weakness in the dollar and ongoing support from Chile’s economic fundamentals.

The day’s trading underscores the peso’s sensitivity to both global commodity markets and domestic monetary policy, with traders remaining attentive to developments in both arenas.