Brazil Set to Hold Key Rate at 13.75%

BRAZIL · CENTRAL BANK · INTEREST RATES

Brazil’s central bank announces its Selic rate decision on Wednesday 4 November 2026, and traders expect a hold at 13.75%. The Selic is the benchmark interest rate, similar to the US federal funds rate; a quarter-point cut would take it to 13.50%.

Updated Tuesday 3 November 2026. Written before 5 a.m. ET, as the Copom prepares to start its two-day meeting.

The Copom, the central bank’s monetary policy committee, meets on Tuesday 3 November and Wednesday 4 November 2026. It votes on the Selic eight times a year and announces the result on the second day.

Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, won re-election in the 25 October runoff, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The first rate decision after the vote is therefore also a test of how the central bank handles political pressure.

How the Selic Got to 13.75%

The central bank’s own series shows the Selic target at 15.00% in January. The Copom then cut it by 0.25 points in March, April, June, August and September.

Those five cuts took 1.25 points off the rate, to 13.75% from 17 September. The committee held the rate at 15.00% at its January meeting.

Annual inflation, measured by the IPCA index from IBGE, Brazil’s statistics office, was 4.58% in the 12 months to September. That is just above the 4.5% upper limit of the central bank’s target range.

The central bank’s Focus survey of economists, dated 23 October, expected 13.25% by December 2026 and 11.75% by December 2027. That survey came before the 25 October runoff, so it does not capture the market reaction to the result.

The central bank’s official dollar rate, the PTAX, put the price of one US dollar at 5.42 reais on Friday 30 October. A weaker real can push up import prices and inflation.

Why Markets Expect a Hold

Inflation is above the target ceiling, and forecasts for 2026 sit near 5.2%, which argues for caution. A pause would keep borrowing costs high but would not end the easing cycle.

On 22 October, a business group of 380 executives and civic figures wrote to Lula and runoff rival Flávio Bolsonaro. The group, Grupo Parlatório, urged a fiscal adjustment to cut the Selic to 7.5% in 2027.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, an online prediction market, gives a hold 84.6% for Wednesday’s meeting and a 25-point cut 12.5% (3 November, 4:07 a.m. ET). A cut of 50 points or more is priced at 1.9%.

About US$134,000 has been traded across all outcomes of the November market. For the 9 December meeting, the market gives a hold 67.5% and a quarter-point cut 25.0%.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

US holders of ADRs, which are US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, face a decision that sets the tone for the real. A hold is the market’s base case, so the statement’s wording matters more than the rate.

US travellers face no change, because the decision does not alter visas, flights or entry rules. The central bank’s official rate was 5.42 reais per US dollar on 30 October.

Related live reports cover the rate-cap debate, the push for cuts, the government response and the central bank board seats. More is in the Selic guide for foreign investors, Brazil Economy Explained and the Brazil hub.

What Is Not Known

The Copom has not voted yet, so its decision, vote split and statement wording are unknown until Wednesday. Market prices are probabilities, not results.

The group’s 7.5% target is a proposal, and no official government response to it has been confirmed. It is also unclear how long a pause would last before cuts resume.

What to Watch Next

The Copom meets on 3 and 4 November, and the statement usually comes about 4:30 p.m. ET on the second day. The minutes are usually published the following Tuesday, 10 November.

The next meeting runs from Tuesday 8 December to Wednesday 9 December, the last of 2026. A hold on 4 November would not end the easing cycle, since the committee can cut again then.

The decision will be added to this page when the Copom announces it. The updated date at the top shows which version you are reading.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Brazil’s central bank announce its interest rate decision?

The Copom meets on Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November 2026 and announces on Wednesday, usually about 4:30 p.m. ET. The next meeting is 8 and 9 December.

What is Brazil’s Selic rate today?

The Selic target is 13.75% a year, unchanged since the cut effective 17 September 2026. It stood at 15.00% in January.

Will Brazil’s central bank cut or hold rates on 4 November?

No decision has been made yet. Polymarket gave a hold 84.6% and a 25-point cut 12.5% (3 November, 4:07 a.m. ET); these prices are bets, not forecasts.

What does the Selic mean for the real and US investors?

A higher Selic tends to support the real, Brazil’s currency, and raises returns on Brazilian bonds. US holders of Brazilian ADRs watch the statement for hints on future cuts.

Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Copom page and calendar; Banco Central do Brasil, Selic target history; Banco Central do Brasil, Selic, PTAX and IPCA series; Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey, 23 October 2026; Superior Electoral Court (TSE), runoff results; Polymarket markets "Bank of Brazil decision in November?" and "in December?" (queried 3 November, 4:07 a.m. ET) (all accessed 3 November 2026).