Zinc Edges Up to US$3,864 as Nexa Gains 1.2% on Tight Stocks
Key Facts
- London zinc edged up 0.32%. Three-month zinc on the LME closed at US$3,863.50 a tonne on Tuesday 29 September 2026, up US$12.50, after Monday’s 1.09% fall.
- Shanghai lagged. The most-traded SHFE November contract ended the night session 0.53% lower at 26,435 yuan (about US$3,944) a tonne, as Chinese buyers finished pre-holiday stocking.
- Nexa Resources rose 1.23% to US$12.38 in New York, the most direct listed zinc play in Latin America; Buenaventura slipped 0.19% to US$31.99.
- LME stocks are up but tight. Inventories stood at 123,550 tonnes on 29 September, yet the cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to US$101.69 a tonne on 28 September.
- Peru’s mine output is falling. Zinc concentrate production was 746,000 tonnes in January to July 2026, down 12% year on year, according to Peru’s mining ministry.
- China’s factory PMI returned to growth overnight, at 50.1 in September from 49.8, ahead of the 1–7 October holiday.
Today’s Focus
Zinc edged higher on Tuesday 29 September 2026. Three-month zinc on the London Metal Exchange closed at US$3,863.50 a tonne, up 0.32%, after trading between US$3,831.50 and US$3,876.
The support came from supply. LME stocks have risen, but the market is paying more for nearby metal: the cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to US$101.69 a tonne on 28 September from US$52.80 a week earlier. Peru, the world’s second-largest producer, mined 12% less zinc concentrate in the first seven months of the year.
Demand stayed soft. In Shanghai, downstream buyers had largely finished stocking up before China’s National Day holiday, and the SHFE November contract slipped 0.53% at night.
Nexa Resources rose 1.23% to US$12.38. Buenaventura dipped 0.19% to US$31.99, even though gold rebounded 1.39%.
What matters today. Zinc is held up by tight nearby supply and shrinking Peruvian output, and held down by thin Chinese buying. Nexa Resources is the clearest Latin American way to play any follow-through.
01 The session in one read
London zinc closed at US$3,863.50 a tonne on Tuesday 29 September 2026, up US$12.50 or 0.32%. It recovered only a fraction of Monday’s US$42.50 fall and stayed short of US$3,900.
LME stocks stood at 123,550 tonnes on 29 September, up 75 tonnes on the day. In the week to 25 September they rose 8,750 tonnes, mostly metal moved onto LME warrant from off-exchange storage, so deliverable supply barely grew, according to Shanghai Metals Market.
The market is neither breaking down nor breaking out. A widening backwardation and falling Peruvian output argue against a sharp sell-off, while a firm dollar and thin Chinese buying before the holiday cap rallies. The variable to watch is whether the LME backwardation keeps widening, which would signal a squeeze on nearby metal.
02 The board
Nexa Resources’ New York shares closed up 1.23% at US$12.38, outpacing the metal. The Peru and Brazil miner is the most direct listed zinc vehicle in the region because it combines mining and smelting in both countries.
Buenaventura slipped 0.19% to US$31.99. The Peruvian miner carries more weight in precious metals, and it did not follow gold’s 1.39% rebound or silver’s 1.18% gain.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Zinc, LME three-month | US$3,863.50/t | +0.32% |
| WisdomTree Zinc (LSE) | US$13.43 | +0.22% |
| Nexa Resources (NYSE) | US$12.38 | +1.23% |
| Buenaventura (NYSE) | US$31.99 | -0.19% |
Source: RT close, 2026-09-29. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| IPSA | 11,055.91 | -0.73% | — | 11,137.23 | 11,210 | 10,984 | 1,513,213,483 |
| IPC MEX | 65,071.30 | +0.20% | +12.17% | 64,944.41 | 66,121 | 65,405 | 108,886,187 |
| MERVAL | 2,782,561 | -0.59% | +30.51% | 3,022,485 | 3,042,365 | 2,991,150 | — |
| COLCAP | 2,558.92 | -0.79% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| BVL PERÚ | 60,220.45 | +0.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| USD/MXN | 17.06 | -0.24% | -8.58% | 17.10 | 17.08 | 17.01 | — |
| USD/CLP | 913.98 | +0.04% | -5.67% | 913.65 | 915.11 | 906.68 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.36 | -0.66% | -4.82% | 3.38 | 3.38 | 3.35 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,493 | +0.10% | +12.96% | 1,491 | 1,494 | 1,480 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.27 | +1.24% | +1.80% | 39.77 | 40.27 | 40.23 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,939 | +1.68% | -19.54% | 5,841 | 5,939 | 5,925 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.64 | -0.76% | +72.04% | 11.73 | 11.72 | 11.64 | — |
| USD/DOP | 58.34 | +1.25% | -3.44% | 57.62 | 58.34 | 58.04 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.92 | +0.89% | -9.71% | 441.97 | 448.50 | 445.92 | — |
03 What moved it
The dollar was firm, with the dollar index up 0.17% to 101.37, and US 10-year yields stayed near 5.25%. New York Fed president John Williams said another rate rise this year was possible, though there was no need to rush. That tone weighs on industrial metals.
On the demand side, Chinese galvanisers and construction users were cautious. Galvanised steel, coated with zinc to prevent rust, is the metal’s main use. Shanghai traders reported weak buying and thin spot trade before the holiday.
04 Tuesday’s data, one by one
Our Tuesday edition told readers to watch Shanghai zinc near 26,500 yuan (about US$3,953) a tonne, London zinc between US$3,851 and US$3,900, Nexa, Buenaventura and the China PMIs. Here is what happened.
- Shanghai zinc: No recovery. The November contract ended the night session at 26,435 yuan (about US$3,944) a tonne, down 0.53%.
- London zinc: A small rebound to US$3,863.50, up 0.32%. The high was US$3,876, short of US$3,900.
- Nexa and Buenaventura: Nexa rose 1.23% with the metal; Buenaventura fell 0.19% and kept diverging from zinc.
- China PMIs (released overnight, Wednesday Beijing time): The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8, in line with forecasts. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.0, above the 49.3 forecast. The private RatingDog/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1. A mild positive for galvanised-steel demand.
- US data: Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 81.9, the lowest since April 2014, and August job openings dropped to 7.08 million. Neither lowered yields or the dollar.
- Brazil data: The September IGP-M rose 1.57% on the month and unemployment held at 5.3%. No effect on zinc.
05 The Latin American read
Peru is the world’s second-largest zinc producer after China, with roughly one-tenth of global mine output. Mexico and Bolivia also rank among the leading producers.
Peru’s output is shrinking. The country produced 102,100 tonnes of zinc concentrate in July, down 11.1% year on year, and 746,000 tonnes in January to July, down 12%, according to the mining ministry’s statistics bulletin. That tightens the concentrate market and supports prices.
06 The names to watch
Nexa Resources runs three mines in Peru (Cerro Lindo, El Porvenir and Atacocha) and two in Brazil (Vazante and Aripuanã), plus zinc smelters in both countries. Aripuanã produced a record 13,000 tonnes of zinc in the first quarter of 2026. Sweden’s Boliden agreed in August to buy Votorantim’s controlling stake in Nexa, with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027.
A fire at Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru in May cut second-quarter refined-zinc output by about 7,000 tonnes. The company kept its 2026 sales guidance and expects to recover the volume in the second half.
07 The outlook
Zinc heads into the final quarter balanced between tight nearby supply and cautious construction demand. Chinese stimulus or faster infrastructure spending could quickly test the available metal.
For Latin American producers, falling Peruvian output is a two-sided story. It supports prices, but it also means lower volumes for the country’s miners. Nexa, with growing Brazilian output from Aripuanã, is better placed than most.
08 What to watch
- China’s holiday: Shanghai is shut from 1 to 7 October; Wednesday is the last Chinese session before the break, and LME trading continues.
- US data today: ADP private payrolls for September (forecast 70,000, prior 38,000) at 12.15 UTC; August PCE inflation (forecast 3.7% year on year) at 12.30 UTC.
- Chile today: August copper production and industrial output at 12.00 UTC (9.00 am in Santiago and Brasília).
- Colombia rate decision: Banco de la República announces its decision at 18.00 UTC; the forecast is a hold at 12%.
- LME spreads: Whether the cash-to-three-month backwardation keeps widening from US$101.69 a tonne.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where did zinc close on Tuesday 29 September 2026?
Three-month zinc on the London Metal Exchange closed at US$3,863.50 a tonne, up 0.32%, balancing tight nearby supply against cautious Chinese demand.
Why is zinc important to Latin America?
Peru is the world’s second-largest zinc producer, and Mexico and Bolivia are also significant suppliers. Peru’s output fell 12% year on year in January to July 2026.
What drives zinc demand?
Galvanised steel uses most zinc, so construction, infrastructure and vehicle manufacturing are the key demand engines, especially in China.
Which Latin American share is the most direct zinc proxy?
Nexa Resources, which combines zinc mining and smelting in Peru and Brazil. It rose 1.23% to US$12.38 on Tuesday.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
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