IRAN · UNITED STATES · PREDICTION MARKETS
Traders now give American and Iranian officials only about a one-in-four chance of sitting down before the year ends. On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, a “Yes” on a senior US-Iran meeting by 31 December costs about 26.5 cents, down from about 45 cents a week ago and 2 points in 24 hours.
It matters to US readers because a meeting would be a visible step in the US-Iran standoff that involves the Strait of Hormuz, the sea lane for Gulf oil and gas. The price shows how much traders are willing to bet on that step before year end.
Key Facts
- Prediction markets Polymarket: 26.5% for a US-Iran senior meeting by 31 December, down 18.5 points in seven days (14 November, 6:30 p.m. ET).
- Trigger No single trigger was reported for the fall.
- Rule A direct or indirect meeting of senior officials counts; no agreement is needed.
- Volume About US$5,100 traded in 24 hours on this line, so it is thinly traded.
- Next The 30 November line, now 7.5%, closes first, at 11:59 p.m. ET.
In Plain English
Polymarket price: 26.5% means traders pay about 26.5 cents for a share that pays US$1 if a meeting happens by the date. It is a bet, not a forecast by this newsroom.
Senior meeting: talks between officials such as foreign ministers, cabinet ministers or special envoys, in person or through a mediator.
Strait of Hormuz: the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the open sea.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket asks, “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by…?” Its rules say the market resolves to “Yes” if there is “a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.”
A qualifying meeting “need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.”
- 31 December: 26.5% “Yes”, down 2.0 points in 24 hours and 18.5 points in seven days; about US$5,100 traded in 24 hours and about US$863,000 in total.
- 30 November: 7.5% “Yes”, down 0.5 points in 24 hours and 21.0 points in seven days; about US$2,500 traded in 24 hours and about US$685,000 in total.
- Where a meeting would happen: in a separate Polymarket market, traders put “No meeting by December 31” at 71.5% and Qatar at 16.6%; that market has about US$389,000 traded in total.
The whole event has traded about US$2.15 million since it opened, but only about US$7,800 in the past 24 hours. Because that is below US$50,000, the market is thinly traded and a few bets can move it.
Kalshi is the exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); we did not find a matching Kalshi contract, so these prices come from Polymarket alone. Read on 14 November 2026, 6:30 p.m. ET (23:30 UTC).
These are bets, not polls, and a price can reverse within hours.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
No single trigger was reported for the fall, and we do not claim one. We found no report that explains it.
Part of the drop is likely arithmetic. The 30 November line lost 21 points in a week, and a shorter window leaves less time for any meeting to happen.
The 31 December line has 47 days left and fell 18.5 points, so time alone is a weaker explanation there. The price was about 45% a week ago and is 26.5% now.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 63,514 | -6.94% | -32.73% | 68,249 | 68,361 | 63,506 | 43,017,834,496 |
| ETH | 1,740 | -9.73% | -43.98% | 1,928 | 1,933 | 1,740 | 17,874,434,048 |
| SOL | 69.12 | -11.49% | -50.20% | 78.10 | 78.39 | 69.05 | 4,610,944,512 |
| XRP | 0.90 | -11.28% | -60.09% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.89 | 3,772,493,056 |
| BNB | 574.83 | -8.68% | -37.19% | 629.43 | 631.14 | 572.48 | 1,658,656,512 |
| ADA | 0.14 | -13.93% | -70.96% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 457,088,288 |
| DOGE | 0.06 | -12.75% | -64.32% | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1,077,971,968 |
| AVAX | 7.00 | -14.87% | -53.68% | 8.22 | 8.25 | 7.00 | 392,989,088 |
| LINK | 8.70 | -11.51% | -36.99% | 9.83 | 9.88 | 8.66 | 402,971,776 |
| DOT | 0.69 | -15.38% | -75.34% | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 116,488,256 |
| LTC | 43.69 | -11.43% | -55.20% | 49.32 | 49.52 | 43.69 | 312,380,064 |
| BCH | 196.41 | -11.24% | -58.95% | 221.27 | 221.98 | 196.41 | 168,105,600 |
| TRX | 0.31 | -1.75% | +4.77% | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 526,324,864 |
| XLM | 0.13 | -9.52% | -49.06% | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 269,639,552 |
| HBAR | 0.06 | -9.85% | -63.67% | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 90,250,904 |
| NEAR | 2.96 | -13.97% | +25.68% | 3.44 | 3.47 | 2.90 | 816,345,408 |
| ATOM | 1.24 | -9.53% | -55.74% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.23 | 33,062,102 |
| AAVE | 98.64 | -11.51% | -43.21% | 111.47 | 112.12 | 97.89 | 261,807,584 |
The Most Recent Contact
The market’s own description cites a recent contact: on 22 September, Steve Witkoff, a US special envoy, and Jared Kushner met Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the UN General Assembly in New York. Al Jazeera, a Qatar-based news network, reported on 23 September that Iranian state media confirmed a meeting between Araghchi and Witkoff, in talks held through mediators.
The market counts indirect meetings as well as direct ones, so talks held through mediators can qualify; the final call rests with Polymarket’s rules.
What It Means for US Readers
For US investors, talks would be one way the standoff over Gulf shipping could ease. The meeting price does not say what oil will do; it only shows what traders pay for the chance of a meeting.
For US politics, the price is a gauge of what bettors expect, not of what the White House or Tehran plan. Voters and companies tracking Iran policy should treat it as one input next to official statements.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
We found no verified link between this price and a specific Latin American or African market. The channel to watch is oil: the Strait of Hormuz carries Gulf crude and gas, so a lasting standoff matters to fuel importers on both continents.
Exporters such as Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria and Angola tend to gain when oil prices rise, which makes talks, or the lack of them, a topic for their budgets. For the matching Hormuz question, see our report on Hormuz deal odds, and for the earlier swing in this market, US-Iran meeting odds jumped to 54% on 9 November and earlier US-Iran meeting odds.
What Is Not Known
No official source has announced a date, place or format for a new round, and the price cannot tell us whether contacts are happening through mediators out of view. The 31 December line is thinly traded, so a single large order could move it again.
More market stories are on our Prediction Markets hub.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are US-Iran meeting odds?
They are Polymarket prices on whether senior US and Iranian officials meet, directly or through a mediator, by a set date. On 14 November the 31 December price was 26.5%.
Why did the odds fall?
No single trigger was reported. The 30 November line lost 21 points as time ran out, and the 31 December line fell 18.5 points in seven days.
Does 26.5% mean talks are unlikely?
Not exactly. A price is a bet, not a forecast, and this line is thinly traded, with about US$5,100 changing hands in 24 hours.
What counts as a meeting?
Polymarket counts a direct or indirect meeting of senior officials, such as foreign ministers or special envoys, even if it produces no agreement.
Is Kalshi offering the same bet?
We did not find a matching Kalshi contract. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, but these prices come from Polymarket alone.
Sources: Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 14 November 2026, 6:30 p.m. ET (23:30 UTC)); Polymarket market rules for “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by…?”; Al Jazeera, 23 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error