UNITED STATES · TRADE
Published Wednesday, 28 October, 4:30 p.m. ET · Source: US Census Bureau advance economic indicators report for September 2026, released 28 October 2026
Key Facts
- Deficit The US goods trade gap widened to US$134.9 billion in September, the advance report shows.
- Forecast Analysts expected US$130.4 billion; the prior reading was US$132.07 billion.
- Inventories Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.4%.
- Release Census Bureau, Wednesday 28 October 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Gap Widens Past Forecasts
The United States ran a goods trade deficit of US$134.9 billion in September, according to the advance economic indicators report of the US Census Bureau. Economists had expected US$130.4 billion, and the prior reading was US$132.07 billion.
The goods deficit is the amount by which the value of imported merchandise exceeds exported merchandise. A wider gap means the country bought more from abroad than it sold, and it is one of the first hard data points for the trade component of economic growth.
Inventories Rise Too
The same report showed wholesale inventories rising 0.6% in September, above the 0.5% economists expected and the 0.5% prior reading. Retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.4%, after a 0.1% gain in the prior reading.
Inventories matter because goods that are imported but not yet sold sit on shelves and count as investment in the national accounts. Faster stock building can therefore offset part of the drag that a wider trade gap puts on growth.
What It Means for US Readers
For US investors the figure is an input to estimates of third-quarter growth and a reminder that import demand remains strong. A persistently wide goods gap can also weigh on the dollar over time.
Households feel the trade balance mainly through prices and availability of imported goods. This report alone does not show how much of the increase came from consumer goods, business equipment or tariff-related timing.
What Is Not Known
The advance report is preliminary and the full trade report, which includes services, will revise it. The breakdown by product and trading partner was not part of the data used for this article.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the advance goods trade balance?
It is an early estimate of merchandise exports minus imports, published about a week before the full trade report. It is preliminary and can be revised.
How big was the September deficit?
The goods deficit was US$134.9 billion, wider than the US$130.4 billion analysts expected and the US$132.07 billion of the prior reading.
Why do inventories matter for growth?
Unsold stock counts as investment in the growth accounts, so a rise in inventories can offset some of the drag from a wider trade gap. Wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.4% in September.
Sources: US Census Bureau advance economic indicators report for September 2026, released 28 October 2026.
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