Ukraine’s Grain Exports Surge in 2024/25 Despite Challenges

Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (July-June) have reached 11.2 million tonnes as of October 7, 2024, surpassing the approximately 7.2 million tonnes recorded during the same period in the previous season.

This increase demonstrates Ukraine’s resilience in maintaining its position as a major global grain exporter despite ongoing challenges.

Export Breakdown

The 11.2 million tonnes of grain exports include:

• 6.5 million tonnes of wheat
• 3 million tonnes of corn
• 1.4 million tonnes of barley

Export Quotas and Restrictions

The Ukrainian government and agricultural associations have agreed to limit wheat exports for the 2024/25 season to 16.2 million tonnes to ensure sufficient domestic supply.

As of early October, traders had utilized nearly 40% of the agreed wheat export quota. No restrictions have been placed on the export of other commodities.

Production Forecasts

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has estimated the combined grain and oilseed crop for 2024 at 74.6 million tonnes, a 2% decrease from initial forecasts and a 9.7% decline from the 2023/24 season.

The Ministry of Agriculture projects the 2024 harvest to be around 77 million tonnes, including approximately 54 million tonnes of grains.

Specific crop production forecasts for the 2024/25 season include:

• Corn: 25.5 million tonnes (down 4.1 million tonnes from 2023/24)
• Wheat: 19.1 million tonnes (down 4.5% from previous estimates)
• Barley: 4.6 million tonnes (20% year-on-year decrease)
• Sunflower: 13.7 million tonnes (3.5% lower than 2023/24)
• Rapeseed: 4.3 million tonnes (4.4% year-on-year decrease)
• Soybeans: 5.5 million tonnes (12.2% increase from 2023/24)

Export Projections

The UGA forecasts the following export volumes for the 2024/25 season:

• Corn: 20.5 million tonnes (21% lower than 2023/24)
• Wheat: 13 million tonnes (13% decrease from 2023/24)
• Barley: 2 million tonnes (500,000 tonnes less than 2023/24)
• Sunflower seeds: 250,000 tonnes (nearly half of 2023/24 exports)
• Rapeseed: 3.4 million tonnes (300,000 tonnes less than 2023/24)
• Soybeans: 4 million tonnes (21.2% increase from 2023/24)

Factors Influencing Production and Exports

Several factors are impacting Ukraine’s grain production and exports in the 2024/25 season:

1. Reduced acreage: Farmers are allocating more land to oilseeds due to their higher profitability compared to grains.
2. Weather conditions: Dry and hot weather in April 2024, particularly in the Central Anatolia region, has affected crop yields.
3. Logistical improvements: The development of alternative export routes, including the Ukrainian Sea Corridor and increased container ship traffic to Romania, has helped maintain export volumes.
4. EU import restrictions: New trade agreements with the EU have set limits on duty-free imports of Ukrainian corn and other farm products, potentially impacting export volumes.
5. Global market dynamics: Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, global grain production is expected to increase by 8 million tonnes year-on-year in 2024.

Ukraine’s ability to maintain strong export volumes despite these challenges demonstrates its continued importance as a key player in global food security.

The country’s agricultural sector has shown remarkable resilience in adapting to wartime conditions and developing new export routes to compensate for disruptions in Black Sea shipping.