Turkey and Israel Redefine Power Dynamics in the Middle East

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has reshaped the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. Turkey and Israel have emerged as the primary strategic beneficiaries in the region. This shift marks a decline in Iranian influence across Middle Eastern countries.

The new Syrian leadership, headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa, focuses on rebuilding the country. Al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, claims to have no interest in local conflicts. However, his past affiliations with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State raise concerns.

Turkey seeks to consolidate its influence over post-Assad Syria. Israel, on the other hand, fears the formation of a Sunni Islamic axis led by Ankara. This potential alliance could pose a threat as serious as the previously Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”.

The strained relations between Turkey and Israel, exacerbated by the Gaza war, now face further challenges. This situation presents an additional hurdle for Donald Trump’s new mandate. It could impact U.S. alliances in the Middle East and Europe.

(Commentary: Dominant Yet Divided: Turkey and Israel Shape the New Regional Order)

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Turkish authorities want the new Syria to succeed under their dominance. They believe Israeli interference could jeopardize their plans. Gönül Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute, highlighted this concern.

Israel’s parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman, Yuli Edelstein, expressed worry about deteriorating relations with Turkey. He noted the potential for confrontations in Syria involving Turkish-inspired and armed proxies.

Turkey and Israel Redefine Power Dynamics in the Middle East

Regional U.S. partners, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, also voice concerns. They worry about the impact of a resurgence in political Islam on regional security under Turkish leadership.

Despite significant political differences, experts suggest that a Turkey-dominated Syria would pose less threat to Israel than the former Iranian presence. Eyal Zisser, from Tel Aviv University, emphasized that Turkey does not seek Israel’s destruction.

The Kurdish question adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Turkey’s recent offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria has heightened tensions within NATO.

As the Middle East’s power dynamics continue to evolve, the relationship between Turkey and Israel remains a critical factor in regional stability. The coming months will likely see further developments in this complex geopolitical landscape.