Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Brazil Bets on Its Sugarcane
Brazil · Business
Key Facts
—Mandate start. A 1% sustainable aviation fuel blend is required in Brazil from 2027, rising to 10% by 2037.
—Feedstock advantage. Sugarcane ethanol gives Brazil a unique Alcohol-to-Jet pathway that the US and Europe cannot yet match at scale.
—Investment pipeline. Announced SAF projects exceed R$50 billion (US$9.8 billion), with the full program projected to unlock R$260 billion (US$51.2 billion) through 2037.
—Current production. Only Petrobras’s Duque de Caxias refinery is co-processing tiny volumes of SAF today, using a 1.2% corn oil blend.
—Passenger reality. No commercial plant will produce meaningful SAF volumes before 2027, and dedicated large-scale output waits until after 2029.
Brazil is pouring billions of dollars into sustainable aviation fuel, betting that its sprawling sugarcane fields and soybean harvests can turn the country into a global supplier long before most of its competitors. The legal architecture is now in place, but the gap between announced projects and fuel flowing into aircraft tanks remains wide.
The Combustível do Futuro Law Sets a Slow-Burn Mandate
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the Combustível do Futuro (Future Fuel) Law on October 8, 2024, creating the National Sustainable Aviation Fuel Program, known as ProBioQAV.
It requires airlines operating in Brazil to cut emissions by blending 1% sustainable aviation fuel from 2027, a figure that climbs to 10% by 2037, generating an estimated demand of 1.2 billion liters annually.
The mandate is less aggressive than Europe’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which started at 2% in 2025 and targets 6% by 2030.
Brazilian officials project the framework will unlock R$260 billion (US$51.2 billion) in total investment through 2037, with development banks BNDES and FINEP pledging up to US$1 billion in financing.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel: What Exists Today, What Is Only Announced
Right now, only one Brazilian refinery produces any sustainable aviation fuel at all. Petrobras’s Duque de Caxias plant (Reduc) in Rio de Janeiro state co-processes a 1.2% blend of corn oil, yielding roughly 600,000 liters per year, a negligible volume in commercial aviation terms.
Everything else remains on drawing boards or in early construction. Brasil BioFuels (BBF) is commissioning a HEFA-technology plant in Manaus, deep in the Amazon, designed to process soy, palm, and corn oil into 250,000 cubic meters of fuel annually, with output expected between 2025 and 2026.
Raízen, a joint venture between Shell and Cosan, targets 2027 for its Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) plant in Piracicaba, São Paulo, though the company has acknowledged unresolved technology challenges.
Energis8, another ATJ project relying on sugarcane ethanol, has announced a far more ambitious 1-billion-liter-per-year capacity but does not expect operations before 2031. Petrobras plans a dedicated ATJ unit at its Paulínia refinery after 2029, and a larger HEFA and ATJ complex at Itaboraí with a potential capacity exceeding one billion liters annually.
Acelen, which operates the Mataripe refinery in Bahia, is aiming for 2027 with a 500,000-cubic-meter HVO and SAF plant using soy, corn, and macaúba palm oil.
GEO Biogás and Copersucar are testing a biogas-to-SAF pathway in Paraná, producing just 750 liters per day at a commercial-scale demonstration unit that started in 2025.
Why Sugarcane Gives Brazil a Genuine Head Start
Brazil’s structural advantage lies in its mature ethanol infrastructure. The country produces over 30 billion liters of sugarcane ethanol annually, providing a ready feedstock for the Alcohol-to-Jet pathway that the United States and Europe cannot replicate at comparable scale.
The US relies primarily on soybean oil and corn oil for the HEFA process, while Europe depends heavily on used cooking oil and animal fats because of limited agricultural land for energy crops. Brazil can deploy both HEFA and ATJ, diversifying its feedstock base across soybean oil, corn oil, used cooking oil, and biomethane.
By 2050, industry projections suggest Brazil could produce up to 9 billion liters of sustainable aviation fuel per year, potentially covering 35% of global demand.
Yet building a plant typically takes five to seven years from initiation to startup, and even optimistic estimates assume four years for facilities already in the pipeline, meaning passengers will not board a flight powered substantially by Brazilian SAF this decade.
What It Means for Expats, Investors, and the Global Market
For foreign investors, Brazil’s sustainable aviation fuel push represents a long-term industrial play anchored in a legal mandate that guarantees demand, even if that demand starts small.
The involvement of global players like Shell (through Raízen) and Mubadala Capital, which has a US$13.5 billion biofuels program, signals that international capital views Brazil’s feedstock advantage as a durable asset rather than a short-term speculation.
Expats living in Brazil are unlikely to notice any immediate change at the pump or in airfare prices, since the initial 1% blend will be absorbed into existing fuel supply chains with minimal cost impact.
However, the construction of major plants in cities like Manaus, Piracicaba, and Itaboraí will create skilled jobs and ancillary service opportunities in engineering, logistics, and agribusiness over the next decade.
When a Passenger Might Actually Fly on It
The 2027 mandate will likely be met through a combination of imported sustainable aviation fuel and small domestic batches from early movers like BBF and Raízen, assuming their timelines hold.
A passenger flying from São Paulo or Rio de Janeiro in 2028 might travel on a jet burning a 1% blend, an improvement so marginal it will be imperceptible in terms of emissions reduction or ticket cost.
Meaningful volumes that could dent aviation’s carbon footprint will not arrive until the 2030s, when Petrobras’s larger plants, Energis8, and other second-wave projects reach full capacity.
Until then, Brazil’s sustainable aviation fuel story is one of industrial policy with a long time horizon, built on a genuine feedstock advantage but still waiting for steel to meet soil.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Combustível do Futuro law?
It is a Brazilian law enacted in October 2024 that mandates a 1% sustainable aviation fuel blend from 2027, rising to 10% by 2037, and creates the ProBioQAV program to promote research and commercialization. The law also provides tax benefits and economic incentives designed to unlock an estimated R$260 billion (US$51.2 billion) in total investment through 2037.
Which Brazilian companies are leading SAF production?
Petrobras, Brasil BioFuels (BBF), Raízen, Energis8, and Acelen have announced major plants. Only Petrobras’s Duque de Caxias refinery is producing small volumes today. Raízen is a joint venture between Shell and Cosan, while Acelen operates the Mataripe refinery in Bahia, highlighting the mix of state-owned and private capital driving the sector.
When will Brazilian airlines actually use SAF on passenger flights?
Airlines will begin blending 1% SAF from 2027 under the legal mandate, but substantial domestic production volumes are not expected until after 2029, with large-scale output arriving in the 2030s. In the near term, Brazil may need to import sustainable aviation fuel to meet the initial mandate while domestic plants ramp up construction.
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