The sugar surplus on the global stage is predicted to expand beyond initial expectations for the 2023-24 cycle, StoneX reports.
Key recoveries in India and Thailand’s sugar production towards the end of their harvest periods have led to this upward revision.
StoneX estimates the global sugar output will exceed demand by 3.88 million metric tons, a rise from the 3.4 million tons predicted earlier in February.
Specifically, StoneX adjusted India’s sugar output forecast up by 1.7 million tons to 32.8 million tons.
Thailand’s estimate also saw a boost of 500,000 tons, reaching 9.1 million tons. Both countries are witnessing improved harvest yields as the season concludes.
Asia’s increased sugar production offsets declines in Mexico and Brazil, signaling a shift in global sugar dynamics.
In Brazil’s center-south region, StoneX revised its sugar cane crush forecast downward from 622 million tons to 602 million tons, starting April.
This adjustment reflects a projected 9% decrease in yield, attributed to unusually dry conditions.
Despite increased focus on sugar production, StoneX doubts Brazil’s center-south will achieve a record high due to constrained cane supply.
The center-south’s sugar production is now estimated at 42.3 million tons, a decrease from the 43.1 million tons previously expected.
Analysts forecast Brazil’s sugar production may drop to 40 million tons, potentially impacting global sugar markets significantly.
Weather, productivity, and global markets shape sugar supply and demand, emphasizing their significance.
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