Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
- —Pollster Ideia; Commissioner: ACSP (São Paulo Commercial Association).
- —Field dates 5-8 August 2026; 1,800 voters by telephone.
- —Margin of error 2.3 percentage points; TSE registration SP-04956/2026.
- —First round Tarcísio 50.6%, Haddad 33.6%, Vera Lucia 2.6%.
- —Runoff Tarcísio 53.4%, Haddad 37.0%, blank/null 4.0%, undecided 5.6%.
- —Tarcísio is the sitting governor running for re-election.
- —Haddad is the former finance minister and PT candidate for governor.
A new Ideia/ACSP poll puts Governor Tarcísio de Freitas far ahead of Fernando Haddad in São Paulo’s 2026 race.
A fresh São Paulo governor poll shows Tarcísio de Freitas leading with 50.6% support. Fernando Haddad trails at 33.6% in the first round, per Ideia for ACSP.
What the Poll Found
The Ideia poll, commissioned by ACSP, tested the São Paulo governor race. Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads with 50.6% of voter intentions.
Fernando Haddad (PT) gets 33.6%, while Vera Lucia (PSTU) has 2.6%. The poll ran from 5 to 8 August 2026.
It surveyed 1,800 voters by telephone, with a margin of error of 2.3 points. The TSE registration number is SP-04956/2026.
O Globo rounded these numbers to 51% for Tarcísio and 34% for Haddad. The exact figures come from Gazeta do Povo’s breakdown.
Inside the São Paulo Governor Poll
This is a state-level poll, not a presidential one, for the 2026 election. Ideia conducted it, and ACSP commissioned the survey.
The poll tested only the governor race, with Tarcísio as the incumbent. Haddad appears as the PT candidate for governor.
Fieldwork happened over four days in early August 2026. The sample includes 1,800 voters across São Paulo state.
The margin of error is 2.3 percentage points, meaning results could vary slightly. The TSE registration ensures transparency and compliance.
Tarcísio’s Commanding Lead
Tarcísio de Freitas, the sitting governor, holds a strong 50.6% in the first round. That is nearly 17 points ahead of Haddad.
His lead suggests broad support for his re-election bid. The Republicanos candidate has a clear path to victory.
In a runoff scenario, Tarcísio still leads with 53.4% against Haddad. This shows his support is solid even in a head-to-head.
The blank/null vote is 4.0%, and undecided voters are 5.6%. Tarcísio’s numbers indicate he is the favorite.
Haddad’s Uphill Climb
Fernando Haddad, the former finance minister, trails with 33.6% in the first round. He left the Finance Ministry in March 2026 after serving since January 2023.
Haddad’s PT candidacy faces an uphill battle against the incumbent. His support is significant but far behind Tarcísio.
In the runoff, Haddad gets 37.0%, still 16 points behind Tarcísio. The gap shows he struggles to close the distance.
He needs to win over undecided and blank voters to improve. But the current poll suggests a tough path to victory.
How the Runoff Scenario Looks
If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff would occur between the top two. Tarcísio would face Haddad in that second round.
The poll shows Tarcísio winning the runoff with 53.4% support. Haddad gets 37.0%, with 4.0% blank or null votes.
Undecided voters make up 5.6% in this scenario. These voters could shift the outcome, but Tarcísio’s lead is large.
In a runoff, Tarcísio leads 53.4% to Haddad’s 37.0%. That gap points to a comfortable win.
Why This Race Matters Beyond São Paulo
São Paulo is Brazil’s richest state, so its governor race has national impact. A Tarcísio win could boost Republicanos’ influence.
Haddad’s performance reflects PT’s strength in a key state. This poll could shape national strategies for 2026.
Tarcísio is seen as a potential presidential candidate for the future. A strong re-election win would solidify his standing.
The poll’s results may influence Lula’s political calculations. But this survey only covers the state race, not the presidency.
What It Signals for 2026 in Brazil
São Paulo is Brazil’s richest state and biggest electoral prize. The race is a proxy fight between the Bolsonaro-aligned right and Lula’s PT.
A strong Tarcísio could lift his national profile. The poll shows him at 50.6% versus Haddad’s 33.6% in the first round.
The runoff widens the gap to 53.4% against 37.0%. This early lead suggests momentum for the incumbent governor.
But it is one poll from 1,800 voters with a 2.3 margin. Field dates were 5-8 Aug 2026, so caution is wise.
What to Watch Next
Watch for more polls to confirm or challenge this lead. Haddad’s PT base could mobilize as the campaign heats up.
Tarcísio’s performance may shape his presidential ambitions for 2026. A decisive win would boost his national standing.
The 2.6% for Vera Lucia shows minor third-party impact. Blank and don’t know votes total 9.6% in the runoff.
Keep an eye on TSE filings for full candidate lists. The race remains fluid with months to go.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the margin of error in this poll?
The margin of error is 2.3 percentage points. This means the actual support could be 2.3 points higher or lower than reported.
Who is Tarcísio de Freitas?
He is the current governor of São Paulo, running for re-election. He belongs to the Republicanos party.
Who is Fernando Haddad?
He is the former finance minister of Brazil, serving from January 2023 to March 2026. He is the PT candidate for governor.
What does TSE registration mean?
TSE is Brazil’s electoral court, which registers polls for transparency. Registration number SP-04956/2026 confirms the poll’s official status.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Ideia/ACSP poll; O Globo; Gazeta do Povo; Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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