Quaest State Polls Map Brazil’s Divide: Flávio Bolsonaro Takes the North, Lula the Northeast
BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —What happened: Quaest published first-round presidential numbers for 23 states plus Brasília on 27 August 2026.
- —Espírito Santo: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 37% to 30% there, with 15% of voters still undecided.
- —The far north: Flávio wins Acre 42% to 25% and posts his best score anywhere in Roraima, 52% to 17%.
- —Lula’s fortress: Lula takes Bahia 50% to 17% and sweeps the Northeast, reaching 58% in Maranhão.
- —The catch: National polls show a near-tie, but the state map reveals two separate regional elections.
- —What comes next: Brazil votes on 4 October, and Goiás is the rare state where a third candidate, Ronaldo Caiado, leads.
New Quaest state polls give Flávio Bolsonaro Espírito Santo, Acre and Roraima, while Lula crushes the Northeast with 50% in Bahia. The national tie hides a map split cleanly in two.
What Quaest published on Thursday night
The pollster Quaest released first-round presidential numbers for 23 Brazilian states plus the Federal District on 27 August. The wave was produced for Grupo Globo and its regional affiliate stations.
Field work ran from 23 to 26 August in most states. Samples ranged around 800 to 900 interviews per state, with margins of error near three points.
The Quaest state polls are registered with the Superior Electoral Court, as Brazilian law requires. Each was commissioned and paid for by a regional Globo affiliate.
Each poll tested two scenarios, one with the disqualified candidate Pablo Marçal and one without. The numbers below use the scenario without him, unless noted.
It is the broadest single-day state wave of the 2026 campaign. The releases ran through Thursday evening on Globo’s g1 portals, state by state.
Quaest is directed by political scientist Felipe Nunes and polls for Globo and for the Genial bank. Its national series has tracked this race since last year.
Espírito Santo: Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in a swing state
The headline number came from Espírito Santo. Flávio Bolsonaro leads there with 37% of voting intentions, against 30% for President Lula.
Renan Santos of the Missão party takes 4%, and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD holds 3%. A full 15% of voters say they are undecided.
With Marçal on the ballot, the state tightens slightly. Flávio falls to 34%, Lula slips to 29%, and Marçal himself takes 3%.
In a runoff simulation in the state, Flávio reaches 48% against Lula’s 42%. Voters there disapprove of Lula’s administration by 53% to 41%.
Espírito Santo has become a reliable Bolsonaro stronghold. Jair Bolsonaro carried it in both 2018 and 2022.
Blank and null votes account for another 7% in the state. That is a low figure for this stage of a Brazilian campaign.
The poll heard 804 people between 23 and 26 August. It was registered with the electoral court as ES-04444/2026 and paid for by TV Gazeta.
The far north delivers Flávio Bolsonaro’s biggest wins
In Acre, on the Bolivian border, Flávio scores 42% against Lula’s 25%. With Pablo Marçal in the mix, the senator rises to 44% and Lula slips to 24%.
Acre has followed the same path for years. The state voted for the elder Bolsonaro in 2018 and again in 2022.
Roraima is his best state in the entire country. He takes 52% there, against just 17% for the president.
Roraima gave Jair Bolsonaro one of his widest margins anywhere in 2022. His son now inherits that loyalty almost intact.
The pattern repeats across the Amazon and the Centre-West in the Quaest state polls. In Mato Grosso do Sul, measured earlier in the week, Flávio leads 33% to 27%.
Bahia and the Northeast remain Lula’s wall
Bahia tells the opposite story. Lula takes 50% of voting intentions there, against only 17% for Flávio Bolsonaro, in a poll of 900 people.
Caiado managed only 4% in Bahia, despite his national profile. The Northeast remains the hardest region in Brazil for any centre-right candidate.
The president’s dominance runs through the whole region. He scores 53% in Sergipe against 19%, and 54% in both Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Norte.
Maranhão gives Lula his best number of the wave, at 58%. He also leads in Alagoas, where the race for governor is far tighter than the presidential one.
Bahia has backed the Workers’ Party in every presidential election since 2002. Nothing in this wave suggests that streak is in danger.
The one state where neither man leads
Goiás breaks the two-man pattern. Former governor Ronaldo Caiado leads the presidential first round in his home state, ahead of both national frontrunners.
Caiado governed Goiás until this year and remains its dominant political figure. His lead at home does not travel, as the Bahia numbers show.
Romeu Zema, the former Minas Gerais governor, takes only 2% in Espírito Santo. His support remains concentrated in the Southeast.
Everywhere else, the map belongs to Lula or Flávio. The earlier part of the Quaest wave had already put Santa Catarina at 45% to 20% for Flávio.
Paraná gave the senator 41% in that same round of releases. The South is now his most uniform region outside the Amazon.
The big electoral colleges stay knife-edge. São Paulo reads 30% to 29% for Flávio, and Minas Gerais 31% to 30%.
Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul and Brasília are all tied in the first round. In the southern runoff simulation, Flávio wins Rio Grande do Sul by 52% to 42%.
Why the state map matters more than the national tie
Nationally, the race remains a statistical tie. The last national Quaest, from 14 August, put Lula ahead 38% to 31% in the first round.
The runoff in that poll read 43% to 40%, inside the margin of error. The Quaest state polls show how that national tie is built.
Two solid regional blocs cancel each other out. The Southeast’s giants then decide the election, state by state.
In Quaest’s national readings, both men carry rejection rates above 50%. The blocs hold together as much by dislike as by loyalty.
That is why both campaigns will spend September in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Those three states hold roughly 40 million voters between them.
The electoral court still has to decide whether Marçal can run at all. His few points, drawn mostly from the right, could matter in the tightest states.
Undecided voters are the other variable. Their share reaches 15% in Espírito Santo, more than double the current gap between the frontrunners there.
Brazil votes on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if no one takes a majority. Free television advertising for all candidates begins this weekend.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads the presidential race in Espírito Santo, according to Quaest?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 37% against Lula’s 30% in the first round. The poll heard 804 voters between 23 and 26 August 2026, and 15% remain undecided.
Where is Lula strongest in the 2026 race?
In the Northeast. The Quaest state polls give him 50% in Bahia against 17% for Flávio Bolsonaro, 53% in Sergipe and 58% in Maranhão.
Where is Flávio Bolsonaro strongest?
In Roraima, where he takes 52% against Lula’s 17%, his best state in Brazil. He also leads in Acre, 42% to 25%, and in Espírito Santo, 37% to 30%.
Connected Coverage
The national picture behind these Quaest state polls is in Brazil’s presidential poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a national tie. We covered the first part of this wave in Quaest state polls for São Paulo, Rio, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco and Brasília and the southern race in Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Rio Grande do Sul. More from Brasília on our Brazil Politics hub.
Sources: Quaest state polls released 27 August 2026 via G1 (Bahia, Roraima), Poder360, UOL, Estadão and CartaCapital; national Quaest of 14 August 2026 via G1.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times