Quaest Polls Show Clear Frontrunners in Five Brazilian States
Brazil · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas 40%, Fernando Haddad 27%
- —Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes 37%, Douglas Ruas 14%
- —Minas Gerais Cleitinho Azevedo 29%, Patrus Ananias 11%
- —Pernambuco Raquel Lyra 44%, João Campos 36%
- —Federal District Celina Leão 34%, Arruda 20%
Less than six weeks before Brazil votes, the Quaest state polls show incumbents and favorites pulling ahead in five key governor races.
A new round of Quaest state polls released on Tuesday 25 August 2026 shows frontrunners consolidating their leads in five of Brazil’s most important gubernatorial races, less than six weeks before the first round of voting on 4 October. The surveys, commissioned by Globo and conducted in person between 21 and 24 August, put Governor Tarcísio de Freitas ahead in São Paulo, former mayor Eduardo Paes in Rio de Janeiro, Senator Cleitinho Azevedo in Minas Gerais, Governor Raquel Lyra in Pernambuco and Celina Leão in the Federal District.
São Paulo: Tarcísio opens a 13-point gap
In the country’s largest electorate, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of the Republicans party leads the race for re-election with 40% of voting intentions, against 27% for former finance minister Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Police officer Edjane of the Agir party has 2%, and four left-wing candidates have 1% each, while blank and null votes plus declared non-voters total 14% and 13% remain undecided. In a simulated runoff, Tarcísio beats Haddad by 47% to 30%. Quaest interviewed 1,800 voters in São Paulo, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
The numbers reflect a well-evaluated incumbent. The governor’s administration is approved by 56% of those polled, and 57% say he deserves re-election. Violence tops the list of voter concerns in the state, cited by 34%, followed by health at 22%. Haddad faces a steep wall of rejection: 59% of voters say they know him and would not vote for him, against 37% rejection for Tarcísio. Two-thirds of São Paulo voters say their choice is already definitive, which narrows the room for a late shift in the race.
Rio de Janeiro: Paes leads a fragmented field
In Rio de Janeiro, former capital mayor Eduardo Paes of the PSD leads with 37% of voting intentions, 23 points ahead of state deputy Douglas Ruas of the PL, who has 14%. Former governor Anthony Garotinho registers 7%, and no other candidate reaches 4%. Undecided voters are a sizable 20%, the largest share among the five states surveyed. Paes also dominates the runoff simulations, beating Ruas by 50% to 20% and Garotinho by 53% to 12%. The poll heard 1,302 voters with a margin of error of three points.
Paes leads in 20 of the 21 demographic and political breakdowns analyzed by the Quaest state polls, losing only among voters who identify as bolsonaristas, where Ruas beats him by 39% to 22%. The race is marked by a strong appetite for change: 54% of Rio voters want the next governor to change everything, and only 11% want continuity. Garotinho carries the heaviest baggage, with 68% of voters saying they know him and would never vote for him, against 41% rejection for Paes.
Minas Gerais: Cleitinho ahead in a wide-open race
Minas Gerais has the most fragmented contest of the five. Senator Cleitinho Azevedo of the Republicans leads with 29%, followed by veteran Workers’ Party figure Patrus Ananias with 11%, former Belo Horizonte mayor Alexandre Kalil of the PDT with 10%, Vice Governor Mateus Simões of the PSD with 7% and Gabriel Azevedo of the MDB with 5%. Nearly one in five voters, 19%, is undecided, and in the spontaneous question, where no names are offered, 80% cannot name a preferred candidate. Quaest interviewed 1,506 voters, with a three-point margin of error.
Cleitinho wins all six runoff scenarios tested, defeating Kalil by 48% to 27% and Patrus by 51% to 26%. The outgoing governor, Romeu Zema, has a 37% approval rating, and 47% of voters say he does not deserve to elect a successor, a warning sign for Simões, the candidate identified with his administration. Health is the top voter concern in the state, cited by 28%, followed by violence at 13%. Cleitinho also posts the lowest rejection among the leading names, at 20%, while Kalil and Patrus are rejected by 41% and 40% respectively.
Pernambuco and the Federal District
In Pernambuco, Governor Raquel Lyra of the PSD leads Recife mayor João Campos of the PSB by 44% to 36%, an eight-point advantage that widens to ten in the runoff simulation, where she wins by 47% to 37%. The result marks a turnaround from polls taken earlier in the race, when Campos held the lead. Lyra’s administration is approved by 68% of voters, the best mark among the governments surveyed, and 61% say she deserves re-election. Quaest director Felipe Nunes said the numbers show the governor converting her positive evaluation into electoral advantage. The poll heard 1,302 voters, with a three-point margin of error.
In the Federal District, Celina Leão of the PP leads with 34%, against 20% for Arruda of the PSD and 13% for Leandro Grass of the Workers’ Party. She wins the runoff simulations against both rivals, beating Arruda by 42% to 32% and Grass by 52% to 24%. Brasília voters are the least decided of the five races: only 47% say their vote is definitive, and 53% admit they may still change. Health dominates local concerns, cited by 58%, far ahead of corruption at 14%. The survey interviewed 1,104 voters, with a three-point margin of error.
What the Quaest state polls mean for October
All five surveys were conducted in person between 21 and 24 August among voters aged 16 and over, with a 95% confidence level, and are registered with the Superior Electoral Court. The samples ranged from 1,800 interviews in São Paulo to 1,104 in the Federal District, with margins of error of two points in São Paulo and three points elsewhere. The Quaest state polls also tested the weight of national alliances, asking whether voters prefer a governor aligned with President Lula, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, or independent of both.
The answers point to different national dynamics in each state. Pernambuco recorded the strongest preference for an ally of Lula, at 50%, while São Paulo showed the largest share preferring an ally of Flávio Bolsonaro, at 33%, and the Federal District the biggest vote for independence, at 42%. With less than six weeks to go, the Quaest state polls suggest that incumbency and approval ratings are doing much of the work in these races. Whether the presidential coattails can move state contests will be the central question as the campaigns enter the final stretch.
Frequently Asked Questions
When were the Quaest state polls conducted?
The Quaest state polls were conducted in person between 21 and 24 August 2026 and released on Tuesday 25 August. They were commissioned by Globo and registered with the Superior Electoral Court.
Who leads the races for governor in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro?
In São Paulo, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads Fernando Haddad by 40% to 27%. In Rio de Janeiro, former mayor Eduardo Paes leads with 37%, against 14% for state deputy Douglas Ruas.
What are the margins of error in the five polls?
The margin of error is two percentage points in São Paulo, where 1,800 voters were interviewed, and three points in Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco and the Federal District, all with 95% confidence.
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Sources
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