OPEC Forecasts Brazil, USA, and Canada to Lead Oil Supply Growth
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts Brazil, the United States, and Canada will lead global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026.
OPEC’s monthly report projects non-OPEC+ supply to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in both years. This growth stems primarily from these three nations, with Argentina and Norway also playing significant roles.
OPEC anticipates global oil demand to rise by 1.43 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.2 million barrels per day. The organization maintains its forecast for 2025 demand growth at 1.45 million barrels per day.
These projections assume global economic growth of 3.1% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. Brazil’s oil production is poised for substantial expansion. The country produced 3.31 million barrels per day in November 2024.
Key growth drivers include pre-salt fields like Tupi, Búzios, and Mero in the Santos Basin. New projects such as Bacalhau, Wahoo, and Lapa will further boost output.
The US Energy Information Administration expects US crude oil production to hit a record 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025. Growth will slow to less than 1% in 2026, averaging 13.6 million barrels per day.
The Permian Basin will account for over half of US crude oil production by 2026. Canada’s production growth will benefit from the Trans Mountain Express pipeline expansion.
New projects like May River and Dover Commercial Project will commence production in 2026. These developments will solidify Canada’s position as a major oil producer.
Global Oil Market
The global oil market faces potential challenges. Geopolitical tensions and sanctions on Russia and Iran could disrupt supply chains. Weather-related shutdowns in North America may also impact production.
However, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to add 1.5 million barrels per day of supply in both 2025 and 2026. OPEC+ members have signaled readiness to unwind extra voluntary production cuts if needed.
This flexibility could help balance the market in case of supply disruptions. The organization’s ability to adjust production will play a crucial role in maintaining market stability.
The shifting dynamics in global oil production highlight the changing landscape of energy markets. As non-OPEC+ countries take center stage in production increases, OPEC‘s traditional role in managing global oil supply may face challenges.
This evolving situation could lead to a more competitive and potentially oversupplied market, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
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