Latin America: ‘Pink Tide’ may have peaked

Dramatic elections in Brazil, Chile and Colombia brought leftist governments to power across much of Latin America in 2022, heralding the region’s second “pink tide” in two decades.

However, their struggles amid persistent economic headwinds suggest the tide may have ebbed. An anti-establishment current that has fueled the left may soon be moving the other way in major elections. 

To have the staying power of the left’s turn-of-the-century renaissance, governments must restart economies that have frustrated voters and investors alike in a decade of mostly mediocre growth.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric, 36, took office in March as his country’s most progressive and youngest leader in half a century. But setbacks, such as the rejection of a new constitution, have hurt his popularity and forced him to make concessions to the center, including replacing some young people in his cabinet with more experienced establishment figures. 

Colombia also made a clear shift to the left with the election of Gustavo Petro in June. The 62-year-old former guerrilla has promised to fight inequality with tax and land reforms. He solved the tax problems with the first reform, but scared investors away with the proposed ban on new oil and gas exploration and the questioning of central bank policy. 

Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 77, who narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Mesias Bolsonaro in October, is a remnant of the region’s first pink tide, when a commodity boom helped him end his 2003-2010 presidency with a record approval. But corruption scandals and economic mismanagement under his elected successor tarnished Lula da Silva’s legacy. Deep polarization, an aging workforce and higher national debt will make it all but impossible for him to repeat such high popularity.

While the domestic political ramifications are still being felt, Latin America’s progressive streak – which includes previously elected presidents of Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia – has reshaped regional diplomacy. 

Many left-wing leaders have taken a friendlier stance toward authoritarian governments in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, making it harder for the United States and its allies to exert pressure. 

While Chile’s Boric was speaking out about human rights abuses under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, both Petro and Lula da Silva were keen to restore diplomatic ties with Caracas. 

The region’s ideological sympathies were made clear in December when left-leaning former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress before deposing it through an impeachment trial. The governments of Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia and Honduras condemned Castillo’s removal, with some calling it a “coup d’etat”. The US State Department said it “welcomes” the appointment of his successor, President Dina Boluarte. Lula da Silva recognized Castillo’s impeachment as “constitutional,” but did not condemn his attempt to shut down the legislature.

The region’s new pink tide has a distinct green tinge as progressive movements embrace the fight against climate change. While the old guard of the left, like Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, still backs fossil fuels, many of his peers are backing renewable energy and environmental protection. 

Lula da Silva’s top foreign policy adviser has urged Brazil to host a summit of Amazon rainforest countries in the first half of 2023, along with developed countries interested in preserving it. However, this and other efforts towards elusive “regional integration” based on a shared ideology may be on the verge of collapse. 

Castillo, who was ousted about a year and a half after his election, may not be the only left leader facing difficult times. 

Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez has an approval rating of about 20% ahead of October’s election, in which he and his allies stand little chance – an indication that the pink tide may soon be turning again.

With information from latinapress