Iron Ore Slips to $96 as Market Faces Supply Pressure

Iron ore prices for 62% Fe fines delivered to China slipped to $96 per ton on July 4, 2025, according to official exchange data. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) futures contract closed at $96.20 per ton in the early morning, reflecting a modest decline after a volatile session.

China, as the world’s largest iron ore consumer, remains the focal point for market participants tracking these moves. Trading volumes increased overnight, with futures activity outpacing the physical spot market.

This surge in volume confirmed that speculative interest remains high, even as physical demand shows caution. Chinese port inventories rose slightly to 137.13 million metric tons, up 210,000 metric tons week-on-week, indicating that supply remains ample despite recent policy optimism.

The previous day saw iron ore rally over 1 percent, closing above $96 per ton and marking a second consecutive weekly gain. However, the latest session reversed some of those gains, as the market digested news of robust shipments from Australia and Brazil.

June imports to China reached 109 million tons, the highest since late 2023, reinforcing the view that supply remains strong. Beijing’s commitment to supply-side reforms, aimed at curbing outdated steel capacity, provided some support earlier in the week.

Yet, the anticipated entry of Simandou in Guinea, which could add 10 to 15 million tons of high-grade supply in 2025, created a potential bearish overhang.

Steel output in China fell 9 percent month-on-month, but infrastructure stimulus and improved manufacturing PMI data have buoyed short-term demand. The real estate sector remains weak, limiting a broader demand recovery.

Iron Ore Faces Resistance Despite Short-Term Bullish Signals

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the price remains below the 200-day moving average, signaling a longer-term bearish bias. The recent rebound from oversold conditions saw the price test resistance at $96.20 to $97.13, but the failure to break higher led to renewed selling.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a slight bullish crossover, but momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovered from oversold levels and now sits near 53, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish short-term momentum.

Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is approaching the upper band, which could signal short-term overextension. The four-hour chart presents a stronger bullish momentum, with the price breaking above short-term moving averages before retreating.

Resistance at $97.61, marked by the 200-period moving average, capped the overnight rally. The MACD on this timeframe remains bullish, but the RSI entered overbought territory, signaling a risk of a short-term pullback.

The price also moved above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming short-term bullishness before the latest reversal. Iron ore prices remain supported by policy optimism and improved manufacturing data, but high inventories and strong supply cap the upside.

Technical signals point to short-term bullishness, but overbought conditions and key resistance levels suggest caution. The market’s next moves will depend on physical demand, inventory trends, and further policy developments in China.