Copper Holds Steady as Market Faces Surplus and Demand Uncertainty

Copper traded at $4.8857 per pound early Monday, reflecting a market that continues to balance tight supply with persistent demand concerns.

Official data from the COMEX confirms the price closed at $4.83 per pound on Friday, after a modest decline of $0.0835 from the previous session.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also reported muted activity, with prices tracking in line with global benchmarks.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global copper surplus of 289,000 tonnes for 2025, more than double last year’s excess. This surplus stems from mine output growth of 2.3%, with new projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mongolia, and Russia ramping up.

However, the ICSG also notes that global demand growth has slowed, especially in China, where consumption is expected to increase by just 0.8% next year.

The group attributes much of this softness to ongoing trade policy uncertainty and the impact of tariffs, which have weighed on industrial activity and investment. Recent price action underscores the market’s cautious tone. Over the past 24 hours, copper has traded within a narrow range.

Copper Market Update

The daily chart shows the price consolidating above the 50-day moving average at $4.837, with resistance at $4.981 and support at $4.778. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating reduced volatility.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the mid-range, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator points to fading bullish momentum, as the price failed to hold above the psychological $5.00 level last week.

Volume remains subdued, with no significant spikes to confirm a directional move. The 4-hour chart mirrors this consolidation, with copper holding above key short-term moving averages but lacking the momentum to break higher.

The Ichimoku Cloud provides additional context, showing price action just above the cloud, a sign of tentative support but not outright strength. Macroeconomic factors continue to exert influence.

The US dollar’s recent weakness has provided some support for copper, as a softer greenback typically boosts dollar-denominated commodities. However, the potential for further tariffs and the uncertain outlook for Chinese demand have kept buyers cautious.

Inventories in the US have risen, reflecting increased imports ahead of possible trade restrictions, while LME stocks have declined as metal flows shift to North America. China remains the dominant force in the copper market, accounting for more than half of global demand.

The surge in the Yangshan premium earlier this year signaled tightness in the Chinese physical market, but recent data shows inventory drawdowns have slowed, and import premiums have stabilized.

This shift aligns with the ICSG’s view that demand growth is losing momentum. In sum, copper’s price stability masks underlying tensions between growing supply and tepid demand.

Technical signals suggest further consolidation unless a clear catalyst emerges. Market participants will watch upcoming macroeconomic data and trade policy developments for direction, as the market navigates a period of surplus and strategic repositioning.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.