Ibovespa Reverses to 180,915 as Trump Signals Iran War End

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Monday’s session was defined by an extraordinary intraday reversal driven by a single geopolitical headline. The Ibovespa opened at 179,367 and quickly slumped to 177,637 — its lowest print since late February — as Brent crude surged past $119 per barrel overnight following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure over the weekend. Asian markets had already collapsed: the Nikkei shed 5.2%, the KOSPI plunged 5.96%, and European indices opened sharply lower. For the first ninety minutes, B3 appeared destined for its second consecutive weekly-opening loss as oil-driven inflation fears throttled risk appetite globally.

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The reversal came in the late afternoon when Trump told CBS News that the war against Iran is “practically concluded” and that the U.S. is “very much ahead” of the initial four-to-five-week timeline. The S&P 500 erased a 1.5% decline to close +0.83%, the Nasdaq flipped from −1.59% to +1.38%, and the Ibovespa surged from negative territory to close at 180,915 — a 4,316-point range and the widest intraday swing since the war began on February 28. Brent crude, which had touched $119.50, collapsed to settle at $98.96 (+6.76%) and continued falling in after-hours to ~$90.

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The session exposed a stark sectoral divide within B3. Oil-linked names dominated the upside: PRIO3 surged 6.01%, Petrobras ON gained 3.43%, and PETR4 rose 2.71% to R$43.25 — a 52-week high that pushed the company’s market cap to a record R$580 billion. At the other end, the Iran-driven selloff hammered rate-sensitive stocks early in the session: MRV (MRVE3) plunged 7.74% on mixed 4Q25 earnings and the broader construction sector stayed under pressure as the Focus survey repriced Selic expectations higher. Vale lost 1.72% despite iron ore rising 2.28% in China, caught between the commodity tailwind and the broader risk-off rotation away from metals producers.

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The dollar’s 1.52% decline to R$5.164 was the most telling signal of the day. After touching above R$5.30 during the morning’s peak risk-off positioning, the real rallied sharply as Trump’s comments deflated the geopolitical premium. Brazil’s position as a net petroleum exporter — with a trailing 12-month oil trade surplus near $38 billion — means elevated crude prices are structurally supportive for the terms of trade, even as they create inflation headaches for the Copom. The B3 also adjusted to new trading hours effective March 9, with the cash market now closing at 16:55 following the end of U.S. daylight saving time.

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Daily (1D):

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The Ibovespa closed at 180,915 with a bullish reversal candle that printed a lower shadow extending to 177,637 and recovered to close near the session high of 181,952. Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, with the Tenkan-sen around 179,458 and the Kijun-sen at approximately 176,593. The Senkou Span B sits at 174,874, marking the cloud floor and serving as the primary structural support. The 200-day SMA at 151,845 is 16% below spot, confirming the secular uptrend remains firmly intact despite March’s 4.2% decline from the 185,130 level.

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The MACD remains in positive territory but has weakened: the signal line sits at 3,117.89 with the MACD line at 1,241.46, producing a histogram of −1,876.43 that reflects the momentum loss from the post-ATH correction. The histogram has been negative for multiple sessions, but today’s reversal candle may mark the inflection point if confirmed by follow-through. RSI reads 60.22 on the 14-period and 45.93 on the secondary — the 14-period RSI has cooled from overbought extremes above 75 in early February to a neutral zone that offers room for a renewed advance without signaling exhaustion. The Bollinger middle band sits near 179,458, and today’s close above it is a constructive signal. The upper Bollinger Band at approximately 185,130 represents the nearest resistance target and aligns with the January–February ATH zone.

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Iran War Endgame → Oil Price Path

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Trump’s “practically concluded” signal drove Brent from $119 to $99 in hours, and after-hours trading pushed it toward $90. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens within days, crude could correct to $80–85 and remove the war premium entirely — a bullish catalyst for rate-sensitive B3 names. If the conflict drags into April, Brent at $100+ becomes the base case and forces the Copom into a shallower rate-cut cycle.

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Copom March 18 → 50bp vs. 25bp

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The Copom meets next week with inflation at 4.44% (near the 4.5% ceiling), diesel defasagem at R$2.74/liter, and the Focus terminal Selic repriced to 12.13%. A 50bp cut was the base case before the Iran escalation; the market now debates whether the committee will moderate to 25bp given the oil shock. Wednesday’s IPCA release for February will be critical — any upside surprise above the expected 1.30% m/m could seal a more conservative cut.

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U.S. CPI Wednesday → Fed Path

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U.S. February CPI lands Wednesday and carries outsized importance given that traders have cut Fed easing expectations from 55bp to 35bp since oil surged. A soft print could reignite dollar weakness and amplify the BRL rally; a hot print at this juncture — combined with oil above $90 — would reinforce the “higher for longer” dollar narrative and pressure emerging-market equities including B3.

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Election Polls → Political Volatility

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The Realtime/Bigdata poll showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% versus Lula at 34% introduces a new dimension ahead of the October 4 election. Markets have not yet repriced political risk, but as the campaign intensifies into Q2, fiscal policy divergence between candidates will increasingly influence sovereign spreads, the BRL, and equity valuations — particularly in the state-owned enterprise complex (Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Eletrobras).

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