Gold Holds Key Support as US Data, China Trade Talks, and ETF Outflows Shape Market Sentiment

Gold prices traded near $3,318 per ounce on June 10, 2025, as traders responded to a mix of macroeconomic signals and technical factors.

Official data from the US Labor Department reported 139,000 new jobs in May, surpassing expectations and keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.

This stronger-than-expected jobs report led markets to push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipated no earlier than October. The US dollar index strengthened, adding pressure on gold by making it less attractive for international buyers.

During the last 24 hours, gold found support at $3,297 and rebounded modestly. The market’s focus remained on the ongoing US-China trade negotiations in London.

Easing tensions between the two countries reduced immediate safe-haven demand, but uncertainty kept gold from falling further. Meanwhile, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for the seventh consecutive month, signaling continued official sector demand.

ETF flows added another layer to the story. May saw net outflows of $1.8 billion from global gold-backed ETFs, the first such move in six months. North America and Asia led these withdrawals, while European funds posted modest inflows.

These outflows followed a dip in gold prices earlier in May, but overall liquidity and year-to-date net purchases remained strong. The outflows reflected a shift in investor sentiment as easing US-China tariffs and steady Fed policy reduced the urgency for safe-haven assets.

Technical analysis of the daily and four-hour charts reveals a market at a crossroads. The four-hour chart shows gold defending the $3,297 trendline, with prices oscillating between $3,306 and $3,324.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed, indicating reduced volatility, while the price sits near the lower band, suggesting a potential rebound if buyers return. The 50- and 200-period moving averages converge near current prices, highlighting a pivotal area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near neutral, confirming a lack of clear momentum. On the daily chart, gold remains in a broader uptrend, but price action has consolidated above $3,300.

The 50-day moving average offers support at $3,303, while resistance stands at $3,335 and $3,355. A close above $3,355 could reignite bullish momentum, while a break below $3,295 may signal deeper correction toward $3,196.

MACD readings on both timeframes show waning momentum, with no decisive signal for either bulls or bears. Macroeconomic fundamentals continue to drive the narrative. Traders await US inflation data due June 11, which will influence Fed policy expectations.

The market also monitors geopolitical risks, including military operations in Ukraine and ongoing uncertainty in global trade policy. Despite recent ETF outflows and a firmer dollar, central bank buying and unresolved global tensions provide a floor for gold prices.

The interplay of these factors keeps the market range-bound, with traders watching for a catalyst to break the current stalemate.

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