Global Economy Briefing — August 13, 2026
Global economy: Overnight markets briefing August 13 2026: S&P 500 edges up, gold climbs past $4,414, US 10-year yield 4.701%, VIX falls 4.78%. Brazil, LatAm...
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
The Big Three
- Nasdaq leads as tech bids again The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 26,588 while the Dow slipped 0.04% to 53,770, keeping the rotation in growth shares alive.
- Gold breaks higher as yields hold firm Spot gold jumped 0.98% to $4,414 an ounce even with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.701%, a sign of strong haven demand.
- Volatility keeps fading on Wall Street The VIX fell 4.78% to 14.55, showing traders are paying less for protection despite mixed index-level moves.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,748 | 7,728 | Mild gain |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,588 | 26,445 | Tech leads |
| Dow Jones | 53,770 | 53,791 | Essentially flat |
| US 10-year yield | 4.701% | 4.696% | Firm |
| Gold spot | $4,414/oz | $4,371/oz | Haven bid |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany wholesale prices m/m | 0.4% (est) | -0.7% | Rebound expected |
| Germany wholesale prices y/y | 5.4% (est) | 4.9% | Price pressure firmer |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China current account (USD bn) | 150 (est) | 184.3 | Surplus narrowing |
| Argentina monthly CPI | 2.0% (est) | 1.9% | Still hot |
| Argentina annual CPI | 33.5% (est) | 33.5% | Disinflation stalled |
| Brazil retail sales y/y | 2.4% (est) | 0.4% | Consumer pulse up |
| Peru interest rate | 4.25% (est) | 4.25% | Holding |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,748 | +0.26% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 167,491 | -0.23% |
| USD/BRL | 5.1781 | +0.29% |
Source: RT close, 2026-08-12. Figures rendered directly from the feed.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Thursday, August 13, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1220 | 3360 |
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply | 7.9 | 8 |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | -50 | 1610 |
| 10:00 | DE | Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | — | 42.28 |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 12:15 | US | Fed Hammack Speech | — | — |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 199 |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1800 | 1801 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197 | 198.75 |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.41 | 156.566 |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI | 0.3 | 0.2 |
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
01 Quiet grip on Wall Street as gold glows
US stocks ended mixed in a session that felt more like position-tidying than conviction. The S&P 500 added 0.26% to 7,748, while the Nasdaq firmed 0.54% to 26,588. The Dow dipped 0.04% to 53,770, a rounding error more than a message.
Gold was the real story. Spot bullion jumped 0.98% to $4,414 an ounce, defying a firm dollar and a 10-year Treasury yield at 4.701%. That combination usually kneecaps non-yielding assets, so the bid looks like investors wanting insurance rather than inflation hedging.
The VIX dropped 4.78% to 14.55, a level that says fear is scarce. Smaller expected swings in options can coexist with a gold rally, but the pair hints at a market buying hedges quietly while still paying up for selected tech winners.
02 The Fed path stays hazy, and that helps gold
The dollar index was barely changed at 99.938, up 0.11% but still pinned below the 100 mark. The US 10-year yield held firm at 4.701%, up a touch on the day. There was no major Fed speaker or data to force a repricing overnight.
Traders are waiting for Thursday’s US retail sales and Michigan sentiment numbers. The retail control group is expected to rise 0.1% for the month, a soft figure that could reopen the debate about how much the Fed needs to do later in the year.
For Brazil this is the channel that matters. A stable DXY near 99 and a firm long-end yield keep the real exposed to global crosswinds. Brazilian retail sales for June are expected to jump 2.4% year over year, a decent domestic pulse, but the Selic-hedged carry still competes with a 4.7% US Treasury for global money.
03 Latin America reads the US calm and asks questions
Argentina’s monthly inflation is expected at 2% for July, with the annual rate stuck at 33.5%. That is a far cry from crisis but still too hot for comfort. Stable price trends would keep the crawling peg intact, leaving the peso carry attractive only to those who can stomach five-point swings in a week.
Peru’s central bank is expected to hold its reference rate at 4.25% on Wednesday evening. With GDP growth soft and the trade balance still in surplus, policymakers are in wait-and-see mode rather than easing aggressively. Colombia reports industrial production and retail sales, with the latter expected to slow from 13.6% annual growth toward 11.7% prior pace.
The regional read-through is straightforward: a calm US tape and a softer VIX allow local currencies and equities to drift higher on carry. But a 10-year yield pinned above 4.7% keeps the bar high for Brazilian small caps and long-duration bets. Watch Thursday’s CFTC positioning data on BRL and MXN for signs that foreign money is still leaning into the trade.
What to watch today and this week
- Thursday: US retail sales, Michigan sentiment, Brazil CFTC BRL positions, Colombia retail sales and industrial output, Peru GDP
- Friday: Baker Hughes rig count, US business inventories, final Michigan inflation expectations digits
- Next week: Brazil business confidence follow-through, Argentina CPI revision, Mexico CFTC positioning detail
- Ongoing: Fed speak on the 4.7% 10-year yield, dollar index holding below 100, gold defensiveness near $4,400
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold rise with yields firm?
Investors used the dip in equity volatility to buy portfolio hedges, pushing spot gold up 0.98% to $4,414 an ounce.
What does the calm US tape mean for Brazil?
It supports carry trades in the real and local equities, but the 4.70% US 10-year yield keeps dollar funding costs high.
Is Argentina’s inflation improving?
Monthly CPI is seen at 2%, with the annual rate unchanged at 33.5%, suggesting disinflation has paused.
Why is the VIX falling?
Implied volatility dropped 4.78% to 14.55 because traders see fewer sharp moves ahead despite mixed index closes.
What should I watch on Thursday?
US retail sales and Michigan sentiment, plus CFTC positioning for the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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