Copper Market Holds Steady as Tariff Uncertainty and Supply Tensions Shape Trade

Copper prices showed cautious movement in the past 24 hours, reflecting a market balancing between supply constraints and macroeconomic pressures. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price hovered around $9,848 per metric ton after briefly touching $9,896.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper opened at 79,810 yuan per metric ton but consolidated lower, unable to push past the 80,000 yuan psychological resistance.

These price levels indicate hesitation among buyers near key resistance points, signaling uncertainty ahead of a critical U.S. tariff decision on July 9.

Trading volumes on both LME and SHFE remained subdued, with open interest stable, as market participants awaited clarity on trade policies that could significantly impact copper flows and pricing.

The cautious stance also reflects ongoing physical market tightness. Shanghai Metals Market data confirmed that standard and high-quality copper remains in short supply early this week.

Although recent Russian copper cargo arrivals have alleviated some spot tightness, they have not fully met industrial demand. LME warehouse stocks declined slightly to 95,275 metric tons, while SHFE inventories stabilized, underscoring a delicate supply-demand balance.

Fundamentally, copper demand benefits from sustained global electrification and infrastructure projects. However, macroeconomic uncertainties and trade risks limit price gains.

The long lead times required for new mining projects restrict the market’s ability to quickly respond to demand increases, maintaining sensitivity to any supply disruptions.

Technical analysis of the charts supports the mixed sentiment. The daily chart shows copper holding above long-term support near $4.97 per pound but facing resistance around $5.22 per pound.

Recent daily candles indicate rejection at this resistance level, suggesting sellers remain active. The four-hour chart reveals a short-term bearish trend.

Prices recently tested the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD histogram expanded negatively, confirming downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart sits near oversold levels at 36.58.

This hints at a possible short-term rebound if macro conditions stabilize. Prices on the four-hour chart fluctuated between a high of approximately $5.05 and a low near $5.01, with the price currently testing support around $5.03.

On the daily chart, prices opened near $5.08, declined to about $5.02, and closed near $5.03, showing a slight pullback from recent highs. Moving averages on both charts suggest the medium-term uptrend remains intact, but momentum has weakened.

ETF flows showed no significant changes in copper-specific funds over the last 24 hours. Broader commodity and equity ETFs absorbed most inflows.

The Sprott Copper Miners ETF continues to attract interest due to ongoing supply constraints and electrification trends, but no major shifts occurred recently.

The copper market remains caught between tight physical supply and macroeconomic headwinds. Traders and industrial buyers watch tariff developments and inventory data closely, aware that any sudden policy changes or supply disruptions could trigger sharp price moves.

The current price action and technical signals reflect a market in cautious equilibrium, holding steady amid global uncertainty.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.