Coffee stocks in Brazil down 16% – slump in arabica production

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – According to a report released last Wednesday (8) by Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), coffee stocks in Brazil have fallen 16% by December 31, 2021.

According to the state agency, at the end of 2021, the country had 1,115,260 tons, or 18.588 million 60-kg bags, in Conab-accredited warehouses, which represents a 16% decrease compared to the level of December 31, 2020.

It is important to note that this amount refers to the visible stocks in warehouses accredited by the National Supply Company (Conab) and thus does not consider grains stored in farms or small unaccredited warehouses.

A few months ago, analysts consulted by Notícias Agrícolas pointed out the need to know the volume of coffee in stock in Brazil, which helps to understand the evolution and direction of the business in the medium term. However, the sector is still waiting for the National Supply Company survey.

“This decline was caused by the fact that the year was a negative two years for Arabica coffee. The hot and dry weather during most of 2020, especially in the second half when the flowers opened, limited the development of the harvests and led to a 29.6% decrease in average yields,” IBGE points out.

Haroldo Bonfá, the market analyst at Pharos Consultoria, says that the figures attract attention. Still, it becomes more challenging to analyze without also taking into account the official statistics of Conab.

According to the expert, this survey is usually conducted in March to take advantage of the window of opportunity between the end of one harvest and the beginning of another. Still, the data have not yet been published by the company.

“It is important to remember that these IBGE figures as of December 31 represent a volume for the entire harvested crop, even considering what has already been exported by that date. And we must not forget that there were certainly stocks in the account from the previous cycle,” he comments.

IBGE also showed that the Southeast region, the country’s largest Arabica coffee producer, accounted for 93.4% of total coffee stocks. On the reporting date, 82.0% of Arabica coffee stocks were located in Minas Gerais, while 73.4% of Canephora coffee stocks were concentrated in Espírito Santo.

It should be noted that this region is the most critical coffee-producing region in the country, with Minas Gerais accounting for 69.9% of national arabica coffee production and Espírito Santo 67.4% of canephora production.

With information from Noticias Agricolas

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