Close Contest in São Paulo Mayoral Race

A recent survey by Genial Quaest conducted from June 22 to June 25 indicates a closely contested mayoral race in São Paulo, one of Brazil’s most significant political positions.

Incumbent mayor Ricardo Nunes (center-right) leads with 22%, followed by Guilherme Boulos (left) at 21% and José Luiz Datena (center-left) at 17%.

Other candidates include Pablo Marçal with 10%, Tabata Amaral at 6%, Marina Helena at 4%, and Kim Kataguiri at 3%. Remaining candidates gather a total of 2%.

The race remains dynamic, with possible shifts depending on final candidate decisions. União Brasil’s support for Nunes may consolidate his lead.

Despite frequent party changes and candidacy withdrawals, Datena is a strong contender among lower-income and basic education voters.

Datena leads among voters earning up to two minimum wages with 26%, followed by Nunes and Boulos.

Among evangelical voters, Nunes leads slightly, while Boulos has strong support among younger voters and those with higher education.

Boulos also leads in spontaneous mentions, indicating strong name recognition and grassroots support.

The poll also assessed current administrations’ performance. 31% of respondents gave Mayor Nunes a positive review, while 28% approved of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration.

Security and health are key issues for voters, with security mentioned by 29% as the main concern.

A notable potential vice-candidate for Boulos is former senator Marta Suplicy, remembered favorably by the electorate.

The media will likely influence the campaign, with 35% of the population relying on television for political information. Nunes will have the largest share of electoral advertising slots.

This Genial Quaest poll highlights São Paulo’s complex electoral dynamics, showcasing candidates’ standings, voter preferences, and key issues shaping the upcoming election.