Brazil’s Lula falls still short of the needed votes to pass law changes
President Lula falls still short of the needed votes to pass law changes, or Constitutional Amendments (PEC), writes Poder360 in its latest report.
He reportedly has 11 parties and 389 deputies in the National Assembly. However, only 283 can be reliably counted on for support.
For a constitutional change, 308 votes are required.
A Poder360 survey shows Lula could have 317 votes. This includes friendly lawmakers outside his main group.
This number would be enough to pass amendments.
Last Wednesday, Lula gained support from the PP and Republican parties. While this widens his base, he may still need to negotiate on specific bills.
This expanded support will, however, make key votes easier. If every coalition party fully backed him, he’d have 389 votes.
But that’s not the reality. Some parties, even those with ministry positions, remain somewhat independent.
Incoming Sports Minister André Fufuca faces internal criticism. Fufuca is set to assume the position amid some party disagreements.
By aligning with Centrão, Lula strengthens ties with House Speaker Arthur Lira. Lira’s influence is vast, covering almost all parties.
Some key appointments still await confirmation. Decisions about the leadership of the national bank will come after the G20 summit.
Originally, Lula’s minister picks were rewards for election support. Now, the aim is to secure enough votes for upcoming legislation.
The number of ministries will increase to 38. One female minister will step down, making way for Fufuca.
The 2023 budget allocated to Centrão is about R$4.9 billion (about US$989.5 million), and it will be R$6 billion (about US$1.2 billion) in 2024.
Budget discussions initially targeted larger ministries.
However, the focus has shifted. Smaller ministries might have less funding but can deliver key community projects.
This focus is crucial as the 2024 local elections approach.
Context
This political maneuvering comes ahead of key votes in the national legislature. The government’s move to expand its base seeks to ease the passage of future bills.
Local elections in 2024 add another layer of complexity to these political deals.
This strategy aims to solidify the standing of Lula’s government for crucial decisions ahead.
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