Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 23, 2024
Today’s economic agenda is packed with crucial indicators that could significantly impact global markets and Brazil’s economic outlook.
In Brazil, the FGV’s weekly IPC-S will provide insights into consumer price trends, while the BCB’s Focus Report will offer valuable market expectations for various economic indicators.
The Secex trade balance data will shed light on Brazil’s export performance and overall trade health.
Internationally, the preliminary Composite PMI indices for Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will be closely watched.
These indicators offer a comprehensive view of economic activity in major global economies, potentially influencing Brazil’s export markets.
Germany’s PMI, in particular, will be scrutinized given its recent underperformance in the Eurozone manufacturing sector.
Mexico’s retail sales and General Index of Economic Activity data will provide insights into the economic conditions of a key Latin American peer.
The combination of domestic and international economic data releases makes today’s agenda particularly significant for investors and policymakers.
The interplay between these indicators could shape market sentiment, influence monetary policy decisions, and impact Brazil’s economic trajectory in the coming months.
Economic Agenda, Monday, September 23
Brazil
– 08:00 AM: FGV: IPC-S (weekly)
– 08:25 AM: BCB: Focus Report (weekly)
– 15:00 PM: Secex: Trade Balance (weekly)
Germany
– 04:30 AM: S&P Global: Composite PMI Index (Sep) – preliminary
Eurozone
– 05:00 AM: S&P Global: Composite PMI Index (Sep) – preliminary
United Kingdom
– 05:30 AM: S&P Global: Composite PMI Index (Sep) – preliminary
Mexico
– 09:00 AM: Retail Sales (Jul)
– 09:00 AM: General Index of Economic Activity (IGAE) (Jul)
United States
– 10:45 AM: S&P Global: Composite PMI Index (Sep) – preliminary
Markets on Friday
The Ibovespa, Brazil’s benchmark stock index, closed down 1.55% at 131,065.44 points on Friday, extending losses from the previous session.
This decline was driven by commodity pressures and a weaker Wall Street. Over the week, the Ibovespa recorded a cumulative decrease of 1.84%, reflecting investor caution amid various economic factors.
In the currency market, the US dollar strengthened against the Brazilian real, closing at R$ 5.5209, a 1.78% increase. However, the American currency still showed a weekly decline of 0.83%.
Economic Outlook
Brazil has adjusted its financial strategy for 2024, reducing the total spending freeze to 13.3 billion reais ($2.4 billion).
This move aims to meet fiscal targets while addressing growing investor concerns about public spending.
The country’s primary deficit, excluding interest payments, now stands at 28.3 billion reais ($5.1 billion).
Commodity pressures continue to impact Brazilian markets, particularly affecting companies in the mining and energy sectors.
Corporate News
Several Brazilian companies are set to reward shareholders this week, potentially boosting investor sentiment.
Mobly shareholders have approved a capital boost for the Tokstok acquisition, signaling potential growth in the retail sector.
Brazil’s tourism sector has seen a remarkable 207% surge in foreign investment during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, marking the best performance in five years for the sector.
However, Brazilian airlines are struggling as global competitors thrive, highlighting challenges in the aviation industry.
Porto, an insurance giant, has outperformed the Ibovespa, successfully navigating market challenges.
Multiplan has made a bold move with a $400 million stake acquisition, shaking up the shopping mall industry.
In other news, a judge has partially suspended lawsuits in Mariana reparation talks, and floods in southern Brazil have led to $15 billion in losses, potentially impacting economic recovery efforts.
As these events unfold, investors should closely monitor how divergent economic indicators and corporate developments shape investment flows and growth prospects in Brazil.
The coming days will reveal the full impact of these factors on the country’s financial markets.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 23, 2024
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+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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