Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 29, 2025
Brazil’s markets face a critical day driven by a blend of domestic and international economic indicators that will shape perspectives on inflation, labor market dynamics, and global demand, all essential for Brazil’s commodity-heavy economy.
Key domestic releases, including the IGP-M Inflation Index, Bank Lending, and Unemployment Rate, will provide insights into inflationary pressures, credit availability, and employment trends, influencing consumer spending and economic growth expectations.
Global data from the United States, Eurozone, and Canada will further impact sentiment around trade, currency stability, and commodity prices, crucial given Brazil’s reliance on exports.
These developments are particularly significant amid Brazil’s elevated Selic rate of 14.75%, fiscal concerns with public debt approaching 80% of GDP, and external pressures from U.S. monetary policy and trade uncertainties.
The Brazilian real’s recent weakness, the Ibovespa’s retreat from record highs, and commodity market volatility will be tested by today’s data, potentially affecting investor confidence and market trajectories.
In Brazil, at 07:00 AM (BRT), the IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) for May (previous: -0.34%) will gauge wholesale and consumer price trends, critical for assessing inflationary pressures in a high-interest-rate environment.
At 07:30 AM (BRT), Bank Lending (MoM) for April (previous: 0.6%) will reflect credit growth, signaling business and consumer borrowing trends.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), the Unemployment Rate for April (previous: 7.0%) will highlight labor market resilience, impacting domestic demand and retail sectors. Strong employment data could bolster consumer-driven industries, while weaker figures may heighten economic slowdown concerns.
In the United States, at 08:30 AM (BRT), GDP (QoQ) for Q1 (consensus: -0.3%, previous: -0.3%) will indicate economic growth, affecting global risk appetite and commodity demand.
Also at 08:30 AM (BRT), Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 229K, previous: 227K) will provide labor market insights, influencing U.S. monetary policy expectations.
At 10:00 AM (BRT), Pending Home Sales (MoM) for April (consensus: -1.0%, previous: 6.1%) will reflect housing market trends, impacting industrial commodity demand.
In the Eurozone, at 04:00 AM (BRT), Italian Business Confidence (previous: 85.7) and Italian Consumer Confidence (previous: 92.7) for May will signal economic sentiment in a key export market for Brazil.
In Canada, at 08:30 AM (BRT), the Current Account for Q1 (consensus: -3.6B, previous: -5.0B) will indicate trade and investment flows, affecting demand for Brazilian agricultural and energy exports.
Norway and Switzerland observe Ascension Day holidays, potentially reducing market liquidity. These releases are pivotal for Brazil’s currency, equity markets, and commodity exports, as investors navigate fiscal challenges and global economic shifts.
Economic Agenda for May 29, 2025
Brazil
- 07:00 AM – IGP-M Inflation Index (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -0.34%. Tracks wholesale and consumer price trends, influencing inflation expectations and monetary policy.
- 07:30 AM – Bank Lending (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.6%. Measures credit growth, reflecting business and consumer borrowing trends.
- 08:00 AM – Unemployment Rate (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 7.0%. Gauges labor market strength, impacting consumer spending and economic growth.
Eurozone
- 04:00 AM – Italian Business Confidence (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 85.7. Reflects corporate sentiment, influencing trade demand.
- 04:00 AM – Italian Consumer Confidence (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 92.7. Measures consumer spending trends, affecting export markets.
United States
- 08:30 AM – GDP (QoQ) (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -0.3%, previous -0.3%. Tracks economic growth, impacting global commodity demand.
- 08:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims: Actual TBD, consensus 229K, previous 227K. Reflects labor market health, influencing U.S. monetary policy.
- 10:00 AM – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -1.0%, previous 6.1%. Gauges housing market activity, affecting industrial commodities.
Canada
08:30 AM – Current Account (Q1): Actual TBD, consensus -3.6B, previous -5.0B. Measures trade and investment flows, impacting demand for Brazilian exports.
Norway
- All Day – Holiday: Ascension Day. Reduced market activity may affect liquidity.
Switzerland
- All Day – Holiday: Ascension Day. Reduced market activity may affect liquidity.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
On May 28, 2025, the Bovespa index (IBOV) closed at 138,887.81 points, declining 0.47%, marking the largest single-day point and percentage drop since May 21, 2025.
The retreat ended a three-day winning streak that had pushed the index near its record high of 140,109.63, achieved on May 20, 2025.
The benchmark fell 653.42 points, driven by concerns over increased IOF (Tax on Financial Operations) rates, which overshadowed robust employment data showing 257,528 new formal jobs created in April, exceeding expectations of 175,000.
Despite the decline, the Ibovespa remains strong, with year-to-date gains of 18,604.41 points or 15.47%, trading just 0.87% below its all-time high and at its seventh-highest closing value in 2025.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed lower on May 28, 2025, pulling back from near-record levels. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, losing 32.99 points to close at 5,888.55. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped 0.6%, shedding 244.95 points to 42,098.70.
The Nasdaq composite declined 0.5%, falling 98.23 points to 19,100.94. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies saw a steeper decline of 1.1%, losing 22.60 points to 2,067.80.
Despite strong corporate earnings from companies like Abercrombie & Fitch, which soared after beating profit and revenue forecasts, and mixed results from Macy’s, broader market sentiment was cautious amid concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and Federal Reserve signals.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real weakened against the U.S. dollar on May 28, 2025, with the USD/BRL exchange rate rising 0.88% to close at R$5.6952, reversing the previous day’s 0.53% gain.
The real’s decline reflected Federal Reserve concerns about persistent inflation, offsetting positive domestic job growth data. Today’s Unemployment Rate, IGP-M Inflation Index, and U.S. GDP data may drive further currency volatility.
Oil Prices
Oil prices surged on May 28, 2025, following a U.S. court decision to block President Trump’s proposed tariffs, easing fears of reduced global demand.
Brent crude futures rose, supporting Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Markets now focus on upcoming OPEC decisions, with today’s U.S. GDP and Pending Home Sales data providing critical demand signals.
Gold Prices
Gold prices slid to one-week lows on May 28, 2025, as the U.S. dollar surged following the court’s tariff block, reducing safe-haven demand.
Despite the drop, gold remains a hedge for Brazil’s mining sector amid global uncertainties. Today’s U.S. GDP and Italian Consumer Confidence data may influence safe-haven flows.
Silver Prices
Silver prices rallied on May 28, 2025, driven by Asian market gains and industrial buying, despite trade policy uncertainties. Prices stabilized near $33 per ounce, supported by a structural deficit, benefiting Brazil’s mining exports.
Today’s U.S. Pending Home Sales and Italian Business Confidence will guide industrial demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices remained under pressure on May 28, 2025, affected by dollar strength and trade uncertainties, impacting Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s U.S. GDP and Italian Business Confidence data will clarify demand outlooks for industrial metals.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin retreated below $108,000 on May 28, 2025, as Ethereum led an altcoin rally, reflecting shifting investor preferences.
Despite the pullback, crypto demand supports Brazil’s fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today’s U.S. GDP and Initial Jobless Claims may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices consolidated around $99 per metric ton on May 28, 2025, amid balanced supply and demand but pressured by China’s property sector challenges, impacting Vale’s revenues.
Today’s Italian Consumer Confidence and Canadian Current Account data will guide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s economy faces headwinds from a Selic rate of 14.75% and public debt nearing 80% of GDP, with IOF tax hikes adding pressure on businesses and investors.
The Ibovespa’s retreat to 138,887.81 points on May 28, 2025, reflects caution despite strong employment data, as fiscal concerns dominate.
Today’s IGP-M Inflation Index, Unemployment Rate, and U.S. GDP data will shape currency stability and export demand, critical for Brazil’s commodity-driven sectors.
Company Updates
AgroGalaxy’s Recovery Plan: On May 28, 2025, a Brazilian court backed AgroGalaxy’s recovery plan, rejecting third-party protections, signaling progress in its financial restructuring and boosting confidence in the agribusiness sector. Today’s Canadian Current Account data may influence agricultural export sentiment.
Wheat Ethanol Plant Launch: Brazil’s first wheat ethanol plant was announced on May 28, 2025, aiming to cut $50 million in annual gluten imports, supporting domestic agribusiness and renewable energy sectors. Today’s Italian Consumer Confidence may guide agricultural demand trends.
BTG Pactual’s Banco Master Acquisition: BTG Pactual acquired R$1.5 billion in assets on May 28, 2025, to stabilize Banco Master, strengthening Brazil’s financial sector. Today’s U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and GDP data will assess broader market risk appetite.
Retail Sector Hiring Surge: Brazilian retailers expanded hiring on May 28, 2025, with business optimism rising 1.6%, driven by strong consumer demand. Today’s Unemployment Rate and Italian Consumer Confidence data will influence retail sector sentiment.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+8.67%
208,763.59
+8.67%
64,531.68
+1.10%
11,018.02
+0.93%
2,841,487
+2.67%
2,538.58
+0.94%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 208,763.59 | +8.67% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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