Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for January 20, 2025
As Brazil’s financial markets kick off trading this Monday, January 20, 2025, the economic calendar features a broad spectrum of events both at home and abroad, poised to influence market dynamics.
Today’s agenda includes Brazil’s crucial BCB Focus Market Readout, which sets expectations for inflation and economic growth, alongside international data from Europe, Canada, and Asia that could ripple through global markets.
These events are vital for investors to understand potential shifts in monetary policies, commodity prices, and investment flows.
Economic Agenda for January 20, 2025
Brazil
06:25 AM – BCB Focus Market Readout: This report is key for market participants to gauge the consensus on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, directly influencing local investment and trading strategies.
Canada
06:00 AM – BoC Business Outlook Survey: Provides insights into Canadian business sentiment, which could have indirect effects on global investment patterns, including those involving Brazilian assets.
10:30 AM – BoC Business Outlook Survey: A second release, potentially offering further detail or revisions to the morning’s sentiment readings.
Germany
02:00 AM – PPI (YoY) (Dec): With an actual increase of 0.8% against a consensus of 1.1%, this data points to trends in German producer prices, influencing expectations about inflation and ECB policy.
02:00 AM – PPI (MoM) (Dec): A decline of 0.1% from a consensus of 0.3% indicates recent movements in producer prices, offering additional context for European economic health.
Eurozone
05:00 AM – Construction Output (MoM) (Nov): Previous growth at 0.97% could signal trends in the construction sector, affecting related industries in Brazil.
05:00 AM – Eurogroup Meetings: These discussions could shape broader European fiscal and monetary policies, potentially impacting global investment climates.
Spain
05:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Dec): With the previous reading at 80.6, this could influence perceptions of consumer spending across Europe.
05:00 AM – Trade Balance (Nov): Previously showing a deficit of -3.93B, this data reflects Spain’s trade health, pertinent for understanding European economic stability.
France
09:00 AM – 12-Month BTF Auction: Previous yield at 2.489%, indicating short-term borrowing costs.
09:00 AM – 3-Month BTF Auction: Yield at 2.691%, showing the cost of very short-term government borrowing.
09:00 AM – 6-Month BTF Auction: Yield at 2.593%, useful for gauging economic confidence and liquidity.
Switzerland
03:00 AM – PPI (YoY) (Dec): Previous at -1.5%, indicating deflationary pressures or relief.
03:00 AM – PPI (MoM) (Dec): Consensus at 0.2% from -0.6%, showing short-term price dynamics.
03:30 AM – World Economic Forum Annual Meetings: Discussions here can set the tone for global economic policies.
Hong Kong
03:30 AM – Unemployment Rate (Dec): Previously at 3.1%, this figure is crucial for understanding Asian labor markets.
South Korea
04:00 PM – PPI (YoY) (Dec): Previously at 1.4%, relevant for understanding Asian supply chain costs.
04:00 PM – PPI (MoM) (Dec): Previously at 0.1%, offering short-term price movement insights.
New Zealand
04:30 PM – Performance of Services Index: Previously at 49.5, indicating service sector performance.
04:45 PM – Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): Previously at 0.0%, showing consumer spending behavior.
04:45 PM – Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): Previous decline at -2.3%, important for retail sector health.
09:00 PM – RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Dec): Previously at 58.60%, reflecting foreign investment in NZ assets.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index saw a near 3% gain this week, largely driven by metal commodities, reflecting a positive week for Brazilian stocks. The dollar rose to R$6.06, amidst remarks from Finance Minister Haddad and political uncertainties tied to Trump’s inauguration.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock indexes ended the week on a high note, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq composite all posting gains, fueled by corporate announcements like SLB’s shareholder returns and expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices dropped but closed the week with gains over 1%, influenced by geopolitical stability and market supply dynamics.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held steady, influenced by a combination of ceasefire news from Gaza and political uncertainty with Trump’s inauguration.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with Trump’s return to politics sparking a market frenzy, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to global political events.
Corporate and Market Highlights
Brazil’s Finance Minister Confident in Monetary Policy’s Inflation Impact: Suggests stability in monetary policy direction.
Dry Weather Boosts Eneva’s Q4 Performance, Challenges Ahead: Indicates sector-specific impacts on energy production.
Brazil Overhauls Tax System: A transformative move with significant implications for business and economic efficiency.
Braskem Invests R$614 Million to Boost Brazilian Petrochemical Output: Showcases industry growth and investment.
Interest Rates in Brazil Surge After Largest Bond Auction in 18 Months: Reflects tightening monetary policy.
Direcional Engenharia Shatters Records in Q4 2024: Signals robust growth in the real estate sector despite broader challenges.
Cocoa and Sugar Markets Face Volatility: On January 17, 2025, the cocoa and sugar markets experienced significant fluctuations. Cocoa futures on ICE exchanges closed lower on Thursday.
Brazil’s Economy – 2.2% Growth Forecast for 2025: The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report predicts Brazil’s economy will grow by 2.2% in 2025. This forecast comes amid a complex global economic environment.
Outlook
Today’s trading will focus heavily on the BCB Focus Market Readout, providing the first look at market expectations for the week. The international economic calendar, with its diverse releases, will also be instrumental in setting the global economic tone, influencing investment flows into and out of Brazil, and affecting currency valuations and commodity prices.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-1.52%
174,041.95
-1.52%
66,383.68
+0.21%
10,950.74
+0.31%
3,283,854
-1.07%
2,274.53
-0.38%
58,287.01
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 174,041.95 | -1.52% | +30.07% | 176,723.62 | 176,720 | 174,042 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.24% | -8.00% | 5.09 | 5.08 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | +0.08% | -10.91% | 5.78 | 5.80 | 5.75 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 96.78 | -3.88% | +41.41% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 95.14 | 29,916 |
| WTI | 89.31 | -3.12% | +37.06% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 87.68 | 336,373 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.29% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,071 | +0.60% | +22.10% | 4,047 | 4,085 | 4,024 | 112,402 |
| SILVER | 58.91 | +1.92% | +54.34% | 57.80 | 59.29 | 57.36 | 26,053 |
| LITHIUM | 67.81 | -1.75% | +51.94% | 69.02 | 68.69 | 67.73 | 177,410 |
| SOY | 1,254 | +1.29% | +25.51% | 1,238 | 1,257 | 1,238 | 166,916 |
| CORN | 487.25 | +5.01% | +21.96% | 464.00 | 492.00 | 479.25 | 257,469 |
| WHEAT | 678.00 | -2.62% | +25.96% | 696.25 | 711.25 | 659.50 | 117,726 |
| COFFEE | 298.25 | -3.60% | +0.24% | 309.40 | 318.55 | 306.40 | 14,168 |
| SUGAR | 14.76 | +0.48% | -9.39% | 14.69 | 14.79 | 14.54 | 45,966 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 142.65 | -2.83% | -55.75% | 146.80 | 146.15 | 141.50 | 345 |
| COTTON | 79.89 | +0.06% | +19.22% | 79.84 | 80.76 | 78.28 | 9,674 |
| BEEF | 222.50 | -1.29% | -1.76% | 225.40 | 224.13 | 220.78 | 19,283 |
| CATTLE | 341.45 | -0.68% | +3.04% | 343.77 | 345.48 | 337.25 | 9,940 |
| COCOA | 5,467 | +3.13% | -34.36% | 5,301 | 5,438 | 5,227 | 17,604 |
| PETR4 | 42.21 | -1.72% | +32.15% | 42.95 | 42.91 | 42.15 | 29,108,700 |
| VALE3 | 75.24 | -0.58% | +33.10% | 75.68 | 75.53 | 74.84 | 8,619,900 |
| SUZB3 | 41.84 | -1.39% | -18.76% | 42.43 | 42.25 | 41.63 | 3,639,400 |
| KLABIN | 17.52 | -0.79% | -5.27% | 17.66 | 17.59 | 17.32 | 3,680,600 |
| SLCE3 | 13.64 | -0.94% | -14.51% | 13.77 | 13.80 | 13.63 | 1,432,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.64 | -1.76% | +15.85% | 15.92 | 15.90 | 15.61 | 15,223,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.10 | -1.08% | +23.68% | 42.56 | 42.45 | 42.04 | 10,431,800 |
| BBDC4 | 18.48 | -1.28% | +17.86% | 18.72 | 18.64 | 18.42 | 13,961,200 |
| BBAS3 | 20.35 | -2.77% | +1.40% | 20.93 | 20.82 | 20.35 | 14,376,600 |
| B3SA3 | 15.44 | -1.34% | +17.68% | 15.65 | 15.67 | 15.43 | 35,146,900 |
| WEGE3 | 45.99 | +0.70% | +26.94% | 45.67 | 46.19 | 44.94 | 7,718,600 |
| PRIO3 | 58.82 | -2.84% | +39.05% | 60.54 | 60.27 | 58.46 | 5,375,200 |
| RENT3 | 36.89 | -0.67% | +2.56% | 37.14 | 37.38 | 36.59 | 4,733,700 |
| AZZA3 | 16.65 | -2.35% | -54.40% | 17.05 | 17.17 | 16.65 | 1,511,900 |
| CSNA3 | 5.36 | +1.13% | -37.31% | 5.30 | 5.45 | 5.24 | 8,140,000 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.39% | 24.06 | 24.45 | 23.82 | 5,543,500 |
| ENEV3 | 24.90 | -3.11% | +79.65% | 25.70 | 25.58 | 24.87 | 4,494,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.27 | -0.75% | -22.31% | 13.37 | 13.49 | 13.18 | 7,803,700 |
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