Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 3, 2025
Brazilian financial markets enter the week’s final trading session ready to assess fresh local data, including the Focus Bulletin and Manufacturing PMI, as well as key U.S. manufacturing figures and construction spending reports.
At 8:25 AM, Brazil will publish its Focus Bulletin, offering an updated consensus on inflation, GDP, and interest rate forecasts, while at 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing PMI reading will gauge industrial sentiment at home.
Across the Americas, attention turns to the U.S. at 9:45 AM for the Manufacturing PMI (Jan), a barometer of factory activity. Multiple releases at 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Dec) and the ISM Manufacturing suite of data — will further clarify how industrial production and related employment are holding up.
The afternoon features speeches by monetary authorities, such as FOMC Member Bostic at 12:30 PM, followed by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) at 1:00 PM, offering a near-real-time snapshot of U.S. economic growth.
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In Europe, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 5:55 AM and the Eurozone CPI (Jan) at 7:00 AM will be pivotal for the region’s inflation trajectory. Broader European manufacturing indicators from Switzerland, Italy, France, and the U.K. arrive between 3:30 AM and 4:30 AM, highlighting divergent trends within the Eurozone.
Simultaneously, Asia continues to see holiday closures in China and Hong Kong for the Lunar New Year, potentially reducing trading volumes. The OPEC Meeting at 5:00 AM could also move global energy markets, critical for Brazil’s export revenues.
Economic Agenda for January 3, 2025
Brazil and Latin America
Brazil
- 8:25 AM – Focus Bulletin
- 10:00 AM – Manufacturing PMI
Mexico
- All Day – Holiday: Constitution Day
The Americas
United States
- 9:45 AM – Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 10:00 AM – Construction Spending (Dec
- 10:00 AM – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 10:00 AM – ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)
- 10:00 AM – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jan)
- 12:30 PM – FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 1:00 PM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1)
Europe
Germany
- 5:55 AM – Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Eurozone
- 7:00 AM – CPI (Jan)
Regional European Releases
- 3:30 AM – Swiss procure.ch PMI (Jan)
- 3:45 AM – Italian Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 3:50 AM – French Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 4:00 AM – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 4:30 AM – U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Rest of the World
China
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Singapore
- No major releases scheduled
Hong Kong
- All Day – Holiday: Chinese New Year
Japan
- 10:35 PM – 10-Year JGB Auction
Australia
- No major releases scheduled
Global
- 5:00 AM – OPEC Meeting
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Brazilian stock market finished January on a positive note, its first monthly gain since August, despite a slight dip on the final trading day of the month. The Ibovespa slipped 0.61 to close at 126,134.94 points on January 31, pressured by downbeat sentiment from Wall Street, yet advanced 5.03 overall in January.
The Brazilian real strengthened further against the U.S. dollar, closing at R5.8366 and marking its tenth straight session of appreciation. This culminated in a 5.56 monthly decline for the greenback, the largest drop since mid-2023, signaling robust capital inflows.
Recent labor market data showed the unemployment rate at 6.2 for the quarter ending in December, slightly above forecasts. Nevertheless, the annual average jobless rate for 2024 fell to 6.6, down from 7.8 in 2023 — its lowest annual level since recordkeeping began in 2012.
Meanwhile, Petrobras raised diesel prices by over 6, a move seen by analysts as reinforcing the state-controlled oil company’s commercial independence.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Wall Street closed out the month of January under pressure from fresh economic data and White House confirmation of steep import tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3 in December, pushing the 12-month rate to 2.6, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2 target but in line with consensus.
By late afternoon, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt affirmed 25 tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10 tariffs on Chinese products, effective immediately.
Amid cautious sentiment, Apple’s shares dipped by more than 1 at one point following mixed fourth-quarter numbers for 2024.
Major U.S. indices wrapped up the day in negative territory:
- Dow Jones: -0.75 at 44,544.66 points
- S&P 500: -0.50 at 6,040.53 points
- Nasdaq: -0.28 at 19,627.44 points
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices edged lower as the imposition of new U.S. tariffs raised fears of dampened global demand. Tensions over possible retaliation could further weigh on energy markets, posing short-term headwinds for Brazil’s oil export revenues.
Gold Prices
Gold prices dipped amid intermittent strength in the U.S. dollar, fueled by tariff news and steady U.S. inflation data. Safe-haven flows remain in flux, with gold’s direction heavily dependent on ongoing trade and geopolitical developments.
Bitcoin Prices
Bitcoin markets saw fresh volatility after a broader crypto pullback, as some investors reassessed risk in light of intensifying global trade frictions. Growing institutional adoption continues to offer long-term support, but price swings remain a hallmark of the digital currency space.
Companies and Markets
Alupar’s Bahia Expansion
Alupar’s acquisition in Bahia strengthens its footprint in Brazil’s energy infrastructure, reflecting the sector’s ongoing consolidation and long-term growth potential.
Read more…
Central Bank’s Reserve Sale
The central bank’s US30 billion reserve auction has eased Brazil’s debt obligations and helped maintain liquidity in the domestic forex market. Read more…
Brazil’s Currency Sees Strongest January Since 2019
The Brazilian real has made a remarkable comeback, posting its strongest January against the US dollar since 2019. This 5.54% appreciation marks a stark contrast to the currency’s struggles at the end of 2024. Read more…
Central Bank’s $30 Billion Reserve Sale Eases Brazil’s Debt Burden
Brazil’s economy showcased remarkable resilience in 2024, with its gross public debt closing at 76.1% of GDP, lower than expected. This achievement came amid global economic challenges and domestic fiscal concerns. Read more…
Braskem’s Settlement
Braskem faces a US2.42 billion environmental settlement, underscoring heightened accountability and ESG scrutiny in Brazil’s corporate landscape. Read more…
Outlook
As January’s data cements a turn of market optimism, Brazil’s 2025 outlook depends on whether heightened global trade frictions overshadow domestic improvements. Should U.S. tariffs spark retaliatory actions, export-driven economies like Brazil may see trade volumes and commodity prices fluctuate.
Local authorities, buoyed by better-than-expected currency performance, have leeway to navigate potential volatility. Investors will watch the upcoming Focus Bulletin data and Manufacturing PMI for any signals on inflation dynamics and industrial health.
Meanwhile, European CPI readings and the OPEC meeting could shift commodity markets in ways that directly impact Brazil’s fiscal and corporate sectors.
Heading into February, the balance between internal growth drivers — such as stronger labor markets and currency inflows — and external shocks from trade policies will dictate whether the Ibovespa and the real can sustain recent momentum or face renewed headwinds.
Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 3, 2025
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+0.46%
183,827.59
+0.46%
65,071.30
+0.20%
11,055.91
-0.73%
2,782,561
-0.59%
2,558.92
-0.79%
60,220.45
+0.32%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 183,827.59 | +0.46% | +21.85% | 182,991.13 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
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