Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for February 14, 2025
Brazilian financial markets are set for a dynamic trading day as key domestic and global economic indicators take center stage. Domestically, the release of the CFTC BRL speculative net positions will provide insights into investor sentiment toward the Brazilian real.
Globally, U.S. retail sales and industrial production data will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, while Eurozone GDP results will shed light on economic resilience in Europe.
These developments are critical for investors navigating a landscape shaped by inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and shifting trade dynamics. Market participants will closely monitor these indicators for their potential to sway currency valuations, commodity prices, and investment flows.
Economic Agenda for February 14, 2025
Brazil
03:30 PM – CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Prev: 0.2K)
The Americas
08:30 AM – USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.3%, Prev: 0.4%)
08:30 AM – USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.3%, Prev: 0.3%)
08:30 AM – USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.4%, Prev: 0.1%)
08:30 AM – USD Retail Control (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.3%, Prev: 0.7%)
08:30 AM – USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: -0.2%, Prev: 0.4%)
08:30 AM – CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Dec) (Cons: 0.1%, Prev: -0.2%)
09:15 AM – USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) (Cons: 0.3%, Prev: 0.9%)
09:15 AM – USD Industrial Production (YoY) (Jan) (Prev: 0.55%)
10:00 AM – USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec) (Cons: 0.0%, Prev: 0.1%)
10:00 AM – USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Dec) (Cons: 0.2%, Prev: 0.5%)
01:00 PM – USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) (Cons: 2.9%, Prev: 2.9%)
01:00 PM – USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (Prev: 480)
01:00 PM – USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (Prev: 586)
03:30 PM – CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (Prev: 230.3K)
03:30 PM – CFTC Gold speculative net positions (Prev: 302.5K)
03:30 PM – CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Prev: 19.0K)
03:30 PM – CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Prev: -4.8K)
Europe
02:30 AM – CHF PPI (MoM) (Jan) (Act: 0.1%, Cons: 0.1%, Prev: 0.0%)
03:00 AM – EUR Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) (Act: 2.9%, Cons: 3.0%, Prev: 2.8%)
03:00 AM – EUR Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) (Act: 2.9%, Cons: 2.9%, Prev: 2.8%)
05:00 AM – EUR GDP QoQ Q4 (Cons: 0.0%, Prev: 0.4%)
05:00 AM – EUR GDP YoY Q4 (Cons: 0.9%, Prev: 0.9%)
07:00 AM – Eurozone GDP
Rest of the World
01:30 AM – INR WPI Inflation YoY Jan (Act: 2.31%, Cons: 2.50%, Prev: 2.37%)
05:00 AM – CNY New Loans Jan (Cons.:770B, Prev.:990B)
03:30 PM – CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Prev:-75.3K)
03:30 PM – CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Prev.:18.8K)
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa index closed Thursday with a modest gain of 0.38%, reaching 124,850.18 points, supported by positive sentiment from Wall Street despite ongoing fiscal concerns and tariff announcements from the U.S. government. The Brazilian real weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar, closing at R$5.7689 (+0.10%).
Earnings reports played a significant role in shaping market activity; Suzano reported a net loss of R$6.737 billion in Q4 but saw its stock rise over 2% due to better-than-expected operational performance amidst currency volatility.
Currency Markets
The Brazilian real remains under pressure as investors await today’s CFTC BRL speculative net positions data for further direction on sentiment toward the currency. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index held steady as markets digested mixed inflation signals and retail sales forecasts that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Oil prices dipped amid rising U.S. crude inventories and geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe. Brent crude traded at $75 per barrel, while WTI hovered near $71 per barrel.
Gold Prices
Gold prices surged to $2,884 per ounce as dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions bolstered safe-haven demand. Central bank purchases and ETF inflows continue to support long-term bullish sentiment.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin traded steadily around $96,650 despite broader market volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainties.
Companies and Markets
Brazil Lowers GDP Growth Forecast
The Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 2.3%, citing inflationary pressures and global economic challenges like U.S.-imposed tariffs and weaker demand from China. Read more…
Vale’s $11.5 Billion Investment in Carajás
Vale S.A. is set to announce an R$70 billion ($11.5 billion) investment in its Novo Carajás project to expand iron ore and copper production by 2026. Read more…
BR Partners Reports Resilient Growth
BR Partners posted an 18% YoY increase in Q4 net income to R$105 million despite rising costs. Read more…
Brava Energia Secures Landmark Oil Deal
Brava Energia finalized a strategic oil supply agreement with Trafigura, strengthening its offshore operations. Read more…
Retail Sector Posts Record Growth
Brazil’s retail sector grew by 4.7% in 2024—its strongest growth in over a decade—driven by low unemployment and stable credit availability. Read more…
TOTVS Exceeds Expectations
TOTVS S.A.’s Q4 adjusted net profit rose by 42% YoY to R$237 million due to strong SaaS revenue growth. Read more…
Moody’s Downgrades CSN
Moody’s downgraded CSN from Ba2 to Ba3 due to high leverage but revised its outlook to stable due to improved liquidity management. Read more…
Suzano’s Resilience Amid Losses
Suzano reported a Q4 net loss of R$6.737 billion but achieved record revenue growth (+37% YoY). Read more…
Trump’s Steel Tariffs Challenge Brazil
Former U.S President Donald Trump reinstated a 25% tariff on steel imports, disrupting Brazil’s export markets. Read more…
Petrobras Secures Strategic Oil Deal
Petrobras signed an agreement with Indian state refiner BPCL for long-term oil supply, strengthening ties with Asian markets. Read more…
Outlook
Today’s trading sentiment will hinge on the interplay between domestic currency positioning data and global economic releases such as U.S. retail sales and Eurozone GDP figures. Vale’s strategic investment announcement is expected to bolster confidence in Brazil’s mining sector while providing long-term growth prospects for the economy.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+7.70%
206,911.89
+7.70%
64,975.08
+0.69%
11,124.65
+1.91%
2,869,488
+0.00%
2,582.65
+2.69%
59,860.04
+0.60%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,911.89 | +7.70% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.