The consultancy firm Céleres projects an 11% fall in corn exports for the 2023–24 season, decreasing from 56.1 million tons last season to 49.8 million tons this year.
This volume, while reduced, still stands out as potentially the second highest in value historically.
A key factor in this downturn is a predicted production drop, with summer and winter crops expected to see declines of 1.5 million tons and 9 million tons, respectively.
Overall, corn production is forecast to hit 119.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous season’s 130 million tons.
Céleres also predicts the smallest planted area since the 2017/18 season, driven by shrinking corn profit margins.
Estimators project a reduction of 700,000 hectares, incorporating a notable decline in second crop planting.
Market prices for corn are likely to dip, following a trend of falling global grain prices.
Yet, an analysis comparing international corn contracts for September 2023 and futures for September 2024 indicates a 2% price increase.
Anticipated 2024 corn export price: $220-$240/ton, slightly below the previous year’s average.
The firm expects corn exports to generate around $11 billion, down from the previous season’s $14 billion record.
China’s role as a primary consumer of Brazilian corn has grown, overtaking traditional markets like Japan and Iran.
China’s corn imports from Brazil surged, constituting 30% of Brazil’s total corn exports in 2023.
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