Brazil’s CONAB raises estimate for record grain harvest in 2022/23

The favorable weather has led the National Supply Company (Conab) to raise its estimate for the Brazilian grain harvest in 2022/23.

The state company is now forecasting a record total volume of 313 million tons, compared to the 312.4 million tons projected last month, with an increase of 15.5% compared to the 2021/22 cycle.

The calculation for the planting area was also increased, from 76.6 million to 76.8 million hectares, representing an increase of 3.2% over last season.

Considering crop rotation, which yields up to three harvests in some regions, the total planted area should be 53.2 million hectares.

With the expectation that weather conditions continue to be favorable, the average productivity of crops should grow 12% to 4,075 kilograms per hectare.

Last month, the calculation indicated 4,079 kilograms per hectare.

SOYBEANS

For soy, the flagship of the national agribusiness, Conab now forecasts a record production of 153.6 million tons, 1 million more than the forecast in October and a volume 22.3% higher than in 2021/22.

The area planted with oilseeds is expected to grow by 3.4%, to 43 million hectares, with advances over other cereals, the opening of new areas, and the occupation of pastureland.

CORN

In the case of corn, the second most planted grain in the country, Conab’s new forecast confirms a new record: 126.4 million tons in the three growing seasons, 500,000 less than projected in October but with a 12% growth compared to 2021/22.

The slight drop compared to the previous estimate is due to a decrease in the planting area of the summer cereal crop compared to last season, which should reach 3.1%.

This retraction reflects the high costs of controlling the corn leafhopper and the loss of space, especially for soybeans.

Even so, with the expectation of good productivity, the summer collection should increase by 12.5% over 2021/22 to 28.2 million tons.

COTTON

According to Conab, cotton lint production is expected to grow 16.9% between harvests to 3 million tons, thanks to an increase of 1.9% in the area to be sown and significant gains in productivity.

Last month, the forecast volume was 2.9 million tons.

RICE AND BEANS

The estimate for rice production was reduced from 10.8 million to 10.6 million tons, and for beans, the adjustment was from 3 million to 2.9 million tons.

In both cases, there will be a decrease in the production area and substitution by other crops, which better yields will partially offset.

WHEAT

Among Brazil’s most important agricultural crops, wheat, whose harvest is underway, should yield 9.5 million tons, 23.7% more than in 2021/22.

With information from Valor Econômico

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