Brazilian Real Bolsters Amid Cooling Inflation and U.S. Data Softness

IBGE data shows the IPCA index dropped 0.11 percent in August. The U.S. Department of Labor reports the PPI fell 0.1 percent for the same month. Traders watch these figures closely as the USD/BRL pair eases to 5.4029 in early September 11 trading.

The Brazilian real gained ground on September 10. The pair closed at 5.4069, down 0.54 percent from the prior day. This move followed the IBGE’s inflation report, which beat expectations of a 0.15 percent decline.

The 12-month IPCA rose 5.13 percent, slightly above the 5.09 percent forecast but lower than July’s pace. Softer prices ease pressure on the Central Bank of Brazil to tighten policy further.

Exporters benefit as a stronger real makes goods more competitive abroad, though importers face higher costs. Political eyes turned to Brasília that day. The Supreme Federal Court resumed former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial on coup allegations.

Markets shrugged off the direct impact. Yet, traders monitor U.S. responses, recalling President Trump’s July tariffs of 50 percent on Brazilian steel and soy.

These measures cite the trial among reasons. No new escalations surfaced overnight. The real held firm, supported by steady foreign reserves at $350 billion.

Across the Atlantic, U.S. data weighed on the dollar. The PPI miss surprised economists, who expected a 0.3 percent rise. Services prices dropped 0.2 percent, while goods edged up 0.1 percent. The 12-month gauge slowed to 2.6 percent from 3.1 percent.

This fuels bets on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve cut on September 18. Weaker U.S. inflation aids emerging market currencies like the real. Brazilian firms see opportunities in cheaper dollar funding for trade.

The DXY index ticked up 0.03 percent to 97.85 late on September 10. It ranges between 97.75 and 98.18 this week. Year-to-date, the dollar index falls 4 percent from peaks over 100.

Brazil’s 10.50 percent Selic rate contrasts with U.S. easing, drawing carry trades. Volumes stayed average, around $50-100 billion equivalent in spot forex.

Technicals reinforce the bearish tilt. On the daily chart, price pierces the 200-day simple moving average at 5.42. A descending channel holds from July highs near 5.70. The 50-day EMA slopes down at 5.45, signaling trend weakness.

RSI at 48 shows neutral momentum, not yet oversold. MACD lines cross bearishly, with the histogram negative. Bollinger Bands contract around a 20-day SMA of 5.41, price near the lower band at 5.40 support.

The 4-hour view mirrors this. Bearish engulfing candles dominate September 10. RSI dips to 42, nearing oversold territory. MACD confirms downside with a signal line below zero.

Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 high of 6.25 to low of 5.35 places 38.2 percent at 5.41, now resistance. Volume spikes validate the drop, no exhaustion yet.

The yellow Global Liquidity Index NDQ line trends flat on both charts. It hovers around 45 percent, indicating stable funding flows. No liquidity squeezes emerge, supporting orderly trade.

Yet, resistance at 5.43 looms if U.S. CPI data today surprises higher. This setup favors Brazilian merchants in the short term. A firmer real cuts import bills for raw materials.

Exporters eye sustained gains unless tariffs bite harder. The pair tests 5.40 support, with downside to 5.38 possible. Traders position cautiously ahead of Fed signals.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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