ANALYSIS · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, where organised crime by factions and militias is a leading voter concern.
- —Why it matters The amendment would rewrite how federal, state and city police share the fight against organised crime, and toughen penalties for faction leaders.
- —Why now The Senate committee stage ended on Wednesday 14 October, eleven days before the presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened The Constitution and Justice Committee closed its review of PEC 18/2025 after three pending requests for separate votes were declared moot.
- —The numbers The text needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. The rapporteur accepted 4 of 81 amendments filed in committee.
- —What it means for you Security policy is a central issue in the 25 October runoff, and a floor vote could come within days.
- —Still open Whether the Senate fast-tracks both rounds before the runoff, and whether the Chamber of Deputies must vote again.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil runoff polls · Polymarket and Kalshi odds · When results come
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 86% · Lula 14%
As of 14 October, 2:00 pm ET (19:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil’s public security amendment cleared its last committee hurdle in the Senate on Wednesday 14 October and now heads to a floor vote. The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) closed its review in Brasília in about ten minutes, with opposition senators absent.
The amendment, PEC 18/2025, is the main crime-fighting proposal of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). For foreigners who weigh crime risk in Brazil, it would rewrite how federal, state and city police share the work.
Lula faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the conservative Liberal Party (PL) in the presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October. Security is one of the central issues of that race, which gives the Senate timetable a sharp political edge.
What the Public Security Amendment Changes
The proposal, sent to Congress by Lula’s government, writes the Unified Public Security System (Susp) into the Constitution. Susp is the framework meant to make federal, state and municipal forces plan and act together against crime.
The text also creates a National System of Penal Policies and strengthens the penal police who guard Brazil’s prisons. It shields three national funds for security, prisons and the Federal Police from budget freezes, except when revenue falls short.
Its toughest section targets leaders and members of criminal factions, paramilitary groups and militias, with a penal regime scaled to their rank. Those convicted would face mandatory imprisonment in maximum-security prisons and tighter limits on regime progression and procedural benefits.
The amendment also allows the confiscation, without compensation, of assets linked to those crimes and makes companies involved liable. It adds constitutional protection for whistleblowers and their families, and new rights for crime victims in criminal cases.
Cities could create municipal civil police for street and community patrols, subject to accreditation and outside control by public prosecutors. A city could not run both a municipal guard and a municipal police force with overlapping duties.
The Federal Highway Police (PRF) would gain authority to patrol federal railways and waterways as well as roads. The Federal Police and the PRF would remain under exclusive federal authority, as would the rules for intelligence work.
Another clause lets Congress halt rules from the national councils of judges (CNJ) and prosecutors (CNMP) that exceed their powers in security and criminal law. Both councils oversee the administration and conduct of Brazil’s courts and prosecution services.
What Happened in the Committee on Wednesday
The committee had approved the main text on Wednesday 2 September, but three requests for separate votes on amendments were left pending. Committee chair Otto Alencar, of the centrist Social Democratic Party (PSD) from Bahia, declared them moot because their authors were absent.
The requests came from Carlos Portinho, the PL’s Senate leader from Rio de Janeiro, and covered amendments by Eduardo Gomes, Alessandro Vieira and Portinho himself. Jovem Pan reported that no senator from the Vanguarda bloc of the PL, Novo and Avante had registered attendance.
Portinho’s amendment would have let the national security fund pay for some Armed Forces operations, including border and law-and-order missions. Gomes wanted traffic agents covered by Susp, while Vieira wanted to drop state council authorisation for municipal police.
The rapporteur, Senator Rogério Carvalho of the PT from Sergipe, had accepted in full or in part 4 of the 81 amendments senators filed. He dropped a clause steering betting revenue to security funds and kept 10% of the pre-salt oil fund’s surplus for the sector.
How the Text Reaches the Senate Floor
As a constitutional amendment, the PEC needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. The rules also require five sessions of debate before the first round, three before the second and five working days between them.
Senators can shorten that timetable if they approve a special calendar by agreement. Alencar said Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, of the centre-right União Brasil from Amapá, wants debate to start right after the vote on ending the six-day working week.
Alencar told the Senate news agency that floor discussion could begin as early as Thursday 15 October. He added that party leaders had backed a vote and that approval before the runoff was possible.
The Chamber of Deputies passed the text before it reached the Senate. The Senate news agency says Carvalho altered that version, and Correio Braziliense notes that changes of substance would send it back to the deputies.
Who Supports It and Who Objects
Lula has pressed the Senate to move and has said he will create a Ministry of Public Security once the amendment is approved, Gazeta do Povo reported. The pro-government Revista Fórum called Wednesday’s vote another victory for Lula.
Opposition politicians and governors critical of Lula have argued that the text lets the federal government invade powers the Constitution gives the states. The government says it will act only on integrated operations, mainly against criminal factions.
What It Means for You
For US travellers and companies, state police still handle most street crime in Brazil, and that will not change overnight. The public security amendment targets the factions and militias behind much of the violence that foreign firms build into their Brazil risk plans.
The timing also matters for the runoff, since a floor win would hand Lula a security achievement days before 25 October. A delay or defeat would give Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign an argument that the government cannot deliver on crime.
Investors should note the funding clauses, which protect security money from budget freezes and tap the pre-salt oil fund’s surpluses. Those choices could limit how flexibly Brasília manages its budget in tight years.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear whether the Senate will approve a special calendar to hold both rounds before Sunday 25 October. Nor is it known whether the PL-led bloc will try again to change the text on the floor.
The wording could still shift through new floor amendments. Whether the Chamber must vote again, and how long that would take, depends on what the Senate finally approves.
No date has been set for the promised Ministry of Public Security. Its budget, structure and relationship with the existing Justice Ministry have not been published.
For background, read our preview Brazil Senate Panel Votes on Gang Crackdown, Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained and Brazil and Its Neighbours in South America. For the race itself, see Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio on 25 October and our Brasília city page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Brazil’s public security amendment?
It is PEC 18/2025, a constitutional amendment proposed by Lula’s government to reorganise Brazil’s security system. It writes the Unified Public Security System into the Constitution and toughens penalties for faction and militia leaders.
What happened in the Senate on 14 October?
The Constitution and Justice Committee finished its review after declaring three pending requests for separate votes moot. The text now goes to the full Senate.
How many votes does the amendment need?
It needs at least 49 of the 81 senators in each of two floor rounds. Without a special calendar, the rules require several debate sessions and five working days between rounds.
Will it pass before the 25 October runoff?
Committee chair Otto Alencar said approval before the runoff is possible if leaders agree. No floor vote date had been fixed when the committee closed its review on Wednesday.
Does it create police forces in cities?
It allows cities to create municipal civil police for street and community patrols, subject to accreditation and outside control by prosecutors. A city could not keep a municipal guard and a municipal police force with overlapping duties.
Sources: Agência Senado, 14 October; Agência Senado, 13 October; Correio Braziliense; Gazeta do Povo; Jovem Pan; Revista Fórum.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief