Opinion: Brazil’s Centrão – Slouching towards Bedlam?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – (Opinion) “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; mere anarchy is loosed upon the world… And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?” W.B. Yeats, “The Second Coming” (1920)

A century after Yeats’s epiphany, things in Brazil are arguably falling apart: double-digit inflation; double-digit unemployment; rapid devaluation of the real (R$); stocks hitting new lows; enduring and deepening droughts; a Senate report denounces federal government corruption and mismanagement in the Covid-19 pandemic, responsible for 612,000+ deaths.

In Brazil’s legislature, however, the “centre” is far from falling apart. The “Centrão” bloc, “its hour come round at last” is moving on several fronts to widen and deepen its influence, as it “slouches” towards a parliamentary coup d’état that would allow it to control both the Executive and Legislative branches of government..

The Centrão today, led by Chamber of Deputies Arthur Lima, holding the Damoclean sword of impeachment over President Jair Bolsonaro’s neck, has already achieved almost complete control over the Executive Branch of government.

One recent example is the “PEC dos Precatórios”, a measure that emasculates the Constitutional spending limit by defaulting on debt to taxpayers; the objective is to permit US$400-per-month payments to the poor before the 2022 elections.

Another example is the multi-billion dollar “secret budget” RP9 payments to select members of Congress, buying their votes in favor of the PEC dos Precatórios – a resuscitation of the “Mensalão” corruption scheme in the early part of the 21^st century.

Yet another example is the indefinite postponement of the tax reform bill proposed by the Economy Minister, which would impose a tax on dividends – the main source of the wealth of the typical Centrão member. Privatizations of state-owned enterprises used for political patronage by Centrão members (e.g. Correios, Eletrobras) are likewise on indefinite hold.

The appetite of the “rough beast” Centrão has not been sated with dominating the Executive Branch – it also seeks control over the Judicial Branch, and in particular, the highest courts of the land, especially the Supreme Court (STF).

Congress is today considering a constitutional amendment (PEC) that would revoke the “PEC da Bengala”, which raised the mandatory retirement age for all judges from 70 to 75. The 2015 amendment’s purpose, admitted by then President of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, was political – to prevent progressive President Dilma Rousseff from appointing some 5 new STF Justices.

The Centrão, led by Cunha, deposed Dilma through an impeachment process that, while formally correct, was widely regarded as a parliamentary coup. It installed VP Michel Temer, a former Centrão legislator, as a lame-duck President.

Current Chamber of Deputies President Arthur Lira was Cunha’s right hand man in passing the PEC da Bengala in 2015; however, in 2021, he has proposed re-establishing the age 70 limit –again, for political reasons. STF Justices Rosa Weber and Ricardo Lewandowski, most of whose decisions greatly displease the Centrão, are both 73 years old: if the new PEC passes, they would have to retire immediately.

The President nominates STF Justices, but the Senate must approve the nominations, and the Centrão controls the nomination procedure. The chair of the Senate committee reviewing STF nominees only started the process yesterday (24), more than 4 months after Bolsonaro had nominated André Mendonça. The Centrão heartily dislikes Mendonça, a supporter of the Lava Jato investigations that have implicated numerous corrupt Centrão members.

There are rumors that, if the new PEC da Bengala is unsuccessful, Lira is proposing to “pack the court”, by raising the number of STF Justices from 11 to 15. The Centrão-controlled Senate would ratify all the new Justices appointed by a docile Bolsonaro in 2022, thus assuring a legislative branch that would remain under the thumb of the Centrão for years to come.

Is this unlikely? Perhaps.

But Yeats did warn us: “everywhere, the ceremony of innocence is drowned; the best lack all conviction; while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”