Bolivian natural gas production to decline, potentially affecting exports by 2030
A British energy consultancy, Wood Mackenzie, suggests that Bolivia’s natural gas production could significantly decrease by 2030, potentially turning the nation from an exporter to an importer.
Currently, Bolivia exports natural gas to Brazil and Argentina, but the decrease in output may lead to the reduction of this trade.
The decline in production is attributed to the maturation of Bolivia’s productive fields and the lack of new discoveries.
The current production rate of 1,400 million cubic feet per day is anticipated to drop to 400 million by 2030.
Consequently, Bolivia’s domestic demand, which consumes around 30% of total supply, might surpass the supply by 2030, pushing Bolivia towards importing natural gas.
Bolivian state-owned company YPFB already reduced gas exports to Brazil by 30% in the previous year to balance supply with production.
Furthermore, the anticipated production decline could significantly impact the export market and Bolivia’s economy since exports to Brazil and Argentina constitute over 70% of total gas sales and 20% of all exports.
The impact is likely to be felt more by Brazil, which still relies heavily on imports despite being a significant natural gas producer.
The reinjection of half of Brazil’s production to boost oil extraction limits its natural gas market.
To reverse the declining production trend, Bolivia would need significant new discoveries and exploration efforts.
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