Lula Camp Splits on Criminal Age Cut to 16

BRAZIL · POLITICS AND SECURITY

Lula’s camp is split over a lower criminal age as the Senate vote on its security amendment stays pending. The dispute comes ten days before the 25 October runoff.

Brazil’s Senate had not voted on its security amendment on Thursday, 15 October, as Lula’s camp split over a lower criminal age. At 5:14 p.m. in Brasília (4:14 p.m. ET), the Senate record showed no vote but listed Santana’s cut as Amendment 87.

The fight comes ten days before the 25 October runoff between Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a race US investors watch. The plenary session opened at 2 p.m. (1 p.m. ET) in Brasília, with the security amendment first on its agenda.

Why the Lula Camp Splits on a Lower Criminal Age

Camilo Santana, who leads the Workers’ Party in the Senate and helps run Lula’s campaign, drafted a narrower cut. It would lower the age from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes only, Folha and O Globo reported.

Metrópoles said on Thursday morning that he was gathering signatures as a counter to the opposition text. His draft, quoted by Folha and O Globo, says criminal groups exploit age 18 to recruit teenagers.

The Senate’s record lists the cut as Plenary Amendment 87 to PEC 18/2025, with 27 senators named as authors, led by Santana. It rewrites Article 228 so criminal liability starts at 16 for heinous crimes and stays 18 for other offences.

The 27 names include Workers’ Party senators Rogério Carvalho, the rapporteur, and Fabiano Contarato, plus MDB senators Renan Calheiros and Jader Barbalho. Otto Alencar and Omar Aziz of the PSD, Marcelo Castro of the MDB and Weverton of the PDT also signed.

R7 and Gazeta do Povo later reported that Santana gave up after resistance in his party, yet the record still lists it. Metrópoles said the Workers’ Party caucus decided not to advance it.

Minister José Guimarães, who handles relations with Congress, told CNN Brasil that Santana “presented” an amendment that the PT caucus opposes. Gazeta do Povo carried the quote; Guimarães had said on Wednesday the issue does not belong in the security amendment, Metrópoles reported.

Teresa Leitão, the government’s Senate leader, said the deal to pass the text without amendments predates Santana’s proposal, Gazeta do Povo reported. “We will not yield to this blackmail by the opposition,” she told reporters, Metrópoles and Estadão reported.

Gazeta do Povo reported that Lula told allies to approve the amendment without changes, without naming a source. The reason given is that any change would send the text back to the Chamber and delay approval past the runoff.

Earlier on Thursday, Senator Marcelo Castro, a Lula ally in the centrist MDB, told SBT News the Senate would approve Santana’s text. He rejected Marinho’s age of 14, said Lula must be acquiescing, and expects the amendment to pass next week.

What the Opposition Filed

The Senate’s record lists the opposition text as Plenary Amendment 84 to PEC 18/2025, the security amendment, filed on Wednesday, 14 October. It is backed by more than 30 senators, including Rogério Marinho and Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative candidate and a senator.

Marinho is a conservative Liberal Party senator who coordinates Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign. His text rewrites Article 228 of the Constitution so people under 16 are not criminally liable.

The text sets 14 as the age for heinous crimes, torture, drug trafficking, terrorism, criminal organisations and other offences set by law. Marinho cites a June Datafolha poll showing 79% support for a lower criminal age in general, Congresso em Foco notes.

How the Vote Would Work

A constitutional amendment needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds. A special calendar approved on Wednesday speeds the process, and an earlier explainer sets out the route.

If the Senate changes the substance, the text returns to the Chamber of Deputies, which has not voted on that change. CartaCapital said that could jeopardise finishing before the runoff, which the government wants.

What It Means for US Readers

Brazil’s runoff on Sunday, 25 October, matters to holders of Brazilian shares and the real, and traders place bets on its result. Flávio Bolsonaro has made a lower criminal age a campaign promise, while the government wants the security amendment approved untouched.

Both drafts are pitched as a response to criminal groups recruiting teenagers. The US State Department designated the Brazilian gangs PCC and Comando Vermelho foreign terrorist organisations from 5 June, the Federal Register shows.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket’s Brazilian presidential election market gave Flávio Bolsonaro 79% and Lula 22% as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, 15 October. These are bets, not polls, and the market has traded about US$183 million in total.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether Santana will withdraw Amendment 87, which R7 and Gazeta do Povo say he gave up. Nor is it known whether Lula himself told allies to reject changes, as Gazeta do Povo reports without a named source.

It is also not known when the plenary will vote, as Castro expects next week and the government wants Thursday. O Globo and R7 report that allies raised a delay, and no postponement has been announced.

What Comes Next

The plenary has yet to vote the security amendment, and the record shows no decision on Amendments 84 or 87. Leitão said the rapporteur, Workers’ Party senator Rogério Carvalho, has agreed to recommend rejecting all amendments, Correio Braziliense reported.

The runoff follows on Sunday, 25 October, between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The criminal age stays 18 until three-fifths of both chambers approve a change in two rounds, meaning 49 senators and 308 deputies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Brazil’s criminal age today?

Under Article 228 of the Constitution, people under 18 are not criminally liable. Teenagers who commit offences face socio-educational measures, including detention for up to three years.

Has the Senate voted on the security amendment?

Not as of 5:14 p.m. in Brasília (4:14 p.m. ET) on Thursday, 15 October, the Senate record showed. It needs 49 of 81 senators in each of two rounds.

Is Lula’s camp backing a lower criminal age?

The camp is split: Camilo Santana drafted a cut to 16 for heinous crimes, but the government’s Senate leader opposes adding it. Santana’s cut is in the Senate record as Amendment 87, but R7 and Gazeta do Povo report he gave up.

How does the opposition’s version differ?

Senator Rogério Marinho’s amendment sets 16 as the general age, and 14 for heinous crimes, torture, drug trafficking, terrorism and criminal organisations. More than 30 senators back it, including presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.

How would a lower criminal age become law?

A constitutional change needs three-fifths of both chambers in two rounds, meaning 49 senators and 308 deputies. If senators change the substance, the text returns to the Chamber of Deputies, which has not voted on that change.

Why should US readers care?

The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on 25 October is watched by US investors and prediction-market traders. Polymarket gave Flávio a 79% chance on Thursday, 15 October, at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Sources: Senado Federal, plenary result feed, 15 October; Senado Federal, PEC 18/2025 record; Senado Federal, Amendment 84 to PEC 18/2025, text and justification; Senado Federal, Amendment 87 to PEC 18/2025, text and justification; Agência Senado, 14 October; Agência Senado, government leader, 15 October; Gazeta do Povo, 15 October; R7 via Primeira Hora, 15 October; Metrópoles, 15 October; Metrópoles, Santana proposal; Estadão via Tribuna de Petrópolis, 15 October; Correio Braziliense, government leader; Folha de S.Paulo, 15 October; O Globo, 15 October; Congresso em Foco, explainer on the amendment; Congresso em Foco, 14 October; CartaCapital, 15 October; Metrópoles, 14 October; SBT News, 15 October; Federal Register, 91 FR 34267, State Department designation of PCC and Comando Vermelho (all accessed 15 October 2026).