Bank of America Adds Fed Hike for January

UNITED STATES · THE FED AND INTEREST RATES

Bank of America (BofA) Global Research said on Friday 13 November 2026 that it now expects the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage point in January 2027. That comes on top of the bank’s earlier forecast of rises in December and March.

The change follows the October consumer price report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed prices up 0.4% on the month. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3%.

What BofA Said

In a research note, BofA economists led by Aditya Bhave, its US economist, said the Fed looks even further behind on inflation after the October report. They argued the central bank can no longer afford to raise rates only once a quarter.

BofA also said the last of the three rises could be delayed or skipped if economic data soften. That caveat is the bank’s own, and the full note is not public.

Why It Matters

One number frames the change: BofA now sees three rises of 0.25 point each, 0.75 point in all, against 0.50 point before. By our arithmetic from today’s range, that path would end at 4.50% to 4.75% after March.

Higher US rates raise the cost of dollar borrowing for governments and companies in emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico. They also tend to pull money toward US assets and strengthen the dollar.

What to Watch

The next checkpoint is the Fed’s meeting on Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December 2026, when it issues a policy statement and new economic projections. The strongest counter-view comes from BofA itself, which says the last rise could be skipped if data soften.

The Fed has announced no rise for January, and BofA’s call is a forecast, not a decision. The prediction markets below show where traders stand on the December step.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a platform where traders bet real money, the market “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?” priced Yes at 96.9% at 3:28 p.m. ET on 13 November, with US$2,018,042 traded in total. A second market, “How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?”, priced two hikes in 2026, a total of 0.50 percentage point (50 basis points), at 90.5%, with about US$273,000 traded on that outcome and US$1.65 million across the whole market.

These are bets, not polls. Neither market covers the January meeting, so they cannot test BofA’s new call.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Bank of America now expect from the Fed?

BofA expects 0.25-point rate rises in December 2026, January 2027 and March 2027. January is the new addition.

What is the Fed’s interest rate today?

The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed set it on 16 September 2026 and held it on 28 October.

When does the Fed meet next?

On Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December 2026. It will publish a statement and new economic projections.

Sources: Federal Reserve Board, statements of the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed’s rate-setting panel) of 16 September and 28 October 2026, and meeting calendar; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for October 2026; Bank of America Global Research note of 13 November 2026 (not public; as described by the bank’s economists); Polymarket market data, read 13 November 2026 at 3:28 p.m. ET.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error