YPF Surges 6.6% on Court Win but Argentine Country Risk Hits 2026 High at 603
The Big Three
YPF surged 6.6% in Buenos Aires and 5.9% in New York after a US court ruling favored Argentina in the long-running litigation over the 2012 nationalization of the oil company. Edenor jumped 6.5% and TGS gained 3.6%, lifting the energy sector decisively.
Argentina country risk today surged to 603 bps, a new 2026 high, as bonds fell −0.4% on average despite the equity rally. The divergence — stocks up, bonds down — reflects rising US Treasury yields (10Y at 4.45%) and the Brent oil spike to USD 110/barrel compressing sovereign spreads globally.
The Treasury launched the new Bonar 2028 (AO28) in its last March licitación, rolling 8 trillion pesos in maturities. The AO28 matures in October 2028 — post-elections — signaling the government is building a local-law dollar curve rather than tapping international markets.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| Merval Close | 2,793,846 | +0.88% |
| Merval ATH (Jan 28) | 3,296,502 | −15.24% |
| Country Risk (EMBI) | 603 bps | 21 bps (2026 high) |
| Dollar Mayorista | ARS 1,374 | +0.4% |
| Brent Crude (May) | USD 110 | +1.8% (Jul 2022 high) |
| US 10Y Treasury | 4.45% | rising |
| S&P 500 | ~6,370 | −1.67% |
| Dow Jones | — | −1.72% (correction) |
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02 Equities
Argentina country risk today surged to 603 bps — a new 2026 high — yet the Merval managed to close +0.88% at 2,793,846, driven entirely by the YPF court victory. In Buenos Aires, YPF jumped +6.6%, Edenor added +6.5%, and TGS rose +3.6%. In New York, YPF’s ADR climbed +5.9%. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The energy sector’s strength masked broad weakness elsewhere. Banking ADRs fell 3%–5% as rising US Treasury yields compressed EM valuations. Rava Bursátil analyst Milo Farro flagged the “marked negative trend driven by the oil price increase,” while advisor Salvador Di Stefano said the oil surge “brings opportunities and threats” and called for “recalibrating 2026 targets.”
Bonds were the session’s clear losers. Globales fell 0.3%–0.7% across the curve, with the Global 2041 down −1.7% (Ámbito). The equity-bond divergence is stark: stocks rallied on the YPF ruling while fixed income repriced for higher global rates and oil-driven inflation fears.
03 Currency
The dollar mayorista rose ARS 6 (+0.4%) to ARS 1,374, reversing three sessions of consecutive peso strength. The BCRA’s FX band ceiling stands at ARS 1,648, leaving the spot rate 20.4% below the upper limit — the widest gap since June 2025. Despite the daily uptick, the peso has still gained 6% in Q1 and the BCRA has accumulated approximately USD 4 billion in purchases under the current regime.
The Treasury’s licitación launched the new Bonar 2028 (AO28) alongside a reopening of the AO27, both in dollars under local law. Puente’s Eric Ritondale noted the government is “consolidating its capture of domestic dollar liquidity” and extending the yield curve to 2028 without tapping international markets. Delphos Investment projected the AO28 would price at roughly 8.5% YTM.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P Merval Daily
The index opened at 2,770,814, sold off to a session low of 2,737,194, then rallied sharply to 2,848,272 before pulling back to close at 2,793,846. The wide range (111,079 points) and long upper shadow indicate strong buying at the lows but profit-taking above 2,830,000.
The MACD histogram at 27,391 is positive and expanding — the first constructive signal in weeks. RSI at 52.89 has crossed back above the 50 midline, with the slow RSI at 46.27 lagging. A sustained hold above 50 would confirm trend reversal. Key resistance sits at 2,833,862; key support at 2,733,762.
05 Key Levels
| Level | Merval |
| Resistance 3 | 2,906,542 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,858,271 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,833,862 |
| Current Close | 2,793,846 |
| Support 1 | 2,733,762 |
| Support 2 | 2,700,776 |
| Support 3 | 2,532,597 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street closed the week at its lows — Dow −1.72% (now in correction), S&P 500 −1.67%, Nasdaq −2.15%. Brent crude hit USD 110, its highest since July 2022. Trump extended the Iran deadline to April 6 for the second time but markets remain skeptical. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose to 4.45%, compressing EM bond spreads across the board.
07 Looking Ahead
The YPF ruling removes a multi-billion-dollar contingent liability that had weighed on the stock for over a decade. If sustained, the decision should accelerate institutional inflows into YPF and the broader Argentine energy sector. April’s soybean harvest begins, historically boosting BCRA dollar purchases and relieving reserve pressure.
However, the country risk at 603 — well above the 500 threshold needed for international market access — signals that fixed-income investors see a different Argentina than equity bulls. The Bloomberg fiscal warning from Thursday remains unresolved, and the AO28 issuance confirms the government does not expect to return to global bond markets before 2028.
08 Verdict
Friday’s session was a tale of two markets. Energy stocks roared on the YPF court victory while bonds wilted under rising US rates and oil-driven inflation fears. The Merval’s +0.88% close and RSI above 50 provide the first constructive technical signal since mid-February, but the country risk at a 2026 high warns against chasing the rally.
Bias: Cautiously bullish on equities, bearish on bonds. The YPF ruling and April soybean inflows create near-term catalysts for stocks, particularly energy names. But the bond market’s message — country risk above 600, spreads widening — demands respect. Position for sector rotation, not broad-market euphoria.
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