Argentina Stocks Rally 4.3%, Trade Surplus Hits US$2B as Peso Firms

Thursday’s 4.26% rally was the Merval’s strongest session in weeks, providing a much-needed reprieve after a punishing stretch that had dragged the index nearly 14% below its January 28 all-time high of 3,296,502. The catalyst was unmistakable: oil. US–Iran tensions sent crude to its highest level in six months, and the Merval — which El Economista aptly describes as “muy empetrolado” — rode the energy wave higher. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Argentina affairs and Latin American financial news.

In New York, Argentine ADRs posted a near-unanimous rally. YPF, Pampa Energía, TGS, Banco Macro, Grupo Supervielle, Grupo Financiero Galicia, BBVA Argentina, IRSA, Telecom, Central Puerto, Cresud, Loma Negra, and Edenor all advanced between 2% and 9%. Only Bioceres bucked the trend, falling 2%.

The rally was not purely oil-driven. Bank of America released an emerging markets note declaring that Argentina “has great potential if the country risk falls,” helping broaden the advance beyond energy names into financials. The IMF’s public endorsement of the labor reform — delivered during the CGT strike itself — added to the bullish narrative.

Volume was healthy given the CGT paro: ARS 95,279 million traded in equities and ARS 124,171 million in CEDEARs. The session unfolded on a national strike day, yet digital trading ensured no disruption. The Merval opened at 2,723,175, touched a low of 2,710,816, and surged to a high of 2,856,940 before settling at 2,839,106.

The peso strengthened on Thursday despite the general strike, with the wholesale dollar dropping 0.5% to ARS 1,389 — its lowest level since November 17, three months ago. The BNA retail rate fell ARS 10 to ARS 1,410 for sale. Infobae noted USD 389.4 million traded in the spot segment, a respectable volume considering the paro.

The blue dollar moved in the opposite direction, edging up ARS 5 to ARS 1,440, while the CCL settled around ARS 1,451 and the MEP at ARS 1,409. The brecha between the official wholesale rate and the blue widened slightly to approximately 3.7%, though it remains historically compressed.

The BCRA continued its relentless reserve accumulation, extending its buying streak to over 31 consecutive sessions. Since January 5, the central bank has purchased more than US$2,169 million, with over US$1,000 million added in February alone. El Cronista reported that the acceleration is linked to renewed dollar-denominated bank lending in the local system.

Inflation remains the thorn. January’s CPI came in at 2.9% month-over-month — the highest since March 2025 and the fifth consecutive acceleration. The annual rate stands at 32.4%. Food and beverages led with a 4.7% monthly spike. The BCRA’s REM survey projects gradual deceleration to 2.1% in February and 1.9% by April, but the market remains skeptical. Plazo fijo rates sit around 30% TNA, with the TAMAR reference near 32%.

The daily chart shows Thursday’s powerful bullish engulfing candle recovering from the 2,710,816 session low to close at 2,839,106. The index remains well above its 200-day SMA at 2,426,999 — a 17% cushion — confirming that the primary trend is still firmly bullish despite the recent correction from the January highs.

The Ichimoku cloud provides layered support in the 2,748,280 zone, visible on the right side of the chart. The Bollinger Bands show the index bouncing off the lower band area, with the upper band resistance around 2,946,631–2,910,562. A sustained close above 2,889,603 would confirm the recovery phase.

Momentum indicators tell a cautious story. The RSI sits at 45.58/40.50 — neutral territory after being deeply oversold during last week’s selloff, suggesting room for further recovery. The MACD histogram at −57,806 remains negative and has been trending bearish since mid-January, though the signal lines at −23,695/−34,111 are beginning to converge, hinting at a potential bullish crossover if the rally extends.

Wall Street closed modestly lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.28% to 6,861.89, the Dow slipping 0.54%, and the Nasdaq declining 0.31%. Walmart fell 1.4% despite beating revenue expectations after issuing cautious 2026 guidance, while Deere surged 11.6% on strong earnings. Software names including Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence Design fell 1.3–2.8% on AI disruption fears.

Oil markets held Wednesday’s sharp gains as US–Iran tensions escalated, with 150 military cargo flights moving weapons to the Middle East in 24 hours and the Pentagon warning US-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters near the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settled at US$65.44 (+0.4%) and Brent at US$70.58 (+0.3%). Gold extended its run above US$5,015 (+2.2%), while the DXY gained 0.19% to 97.89.

The elevated oil environment is a direct positive for Argentina’s equity market, where Vaca Muerta producers represent a disproportionate share of the Merval’s market capitalization. Vista Energy, YPF, Pampa Energía, and TGS together account for a dominant weight in the index. Sustained Brent above US$70 supports production economics and export revenue from the shale formation.

Friday brings the US PCE inflation report — the Fed’s preferred gauge — plus Q4 GDP data, both of which could move global risk appetite and the DXY. Domestically, the labor reform vote in Diputados remains the primary catalyst. The reform creates the Fondo de Asistencia Laboral (FAL), allows staggered payment of labor judgments, and aims to reduce informality in a country where roughly 40% of workers are in the informal sector.

The BCRA’s reserve accumulation trajectory is key for the riesgo país outlook. Analysts at Portfolio Personal Inversiones estimate the Merval in dollars should be trading near US$2,173 based on the current EMBI level — roughly 6.6% above present values. A successful reform vote plus continued reserve purchases could catalyze the compression needed to close that gap.

The February inflation print (due March 10) will be closely watched. Consultoras project a reading near 2.1–2.2%, which would represent a meaningful deceleration from January’s 2.9%. Any upside surprise could reignite concerns about “estanflación” — a word that has started to reappear among economists as activity stalls while prices remain sticky.

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