Colombian Peso at Month-High as Ecopetrol Dividend Rises Amid Roa Crisis
The Big Three
Ecopetrol’s shareholder assembly approved a dividend of COP 121 per share — 10% above the board’s original COP 110 proposal — after the government pushed through the increase. Total payout rises to COP 4.9 trillion, with COP 4.4 trillion flowing to the state. CEO Ricardo Roa was booed by shareholders demanding his resignation.
The Colombian peso exchange rate today hit its lowest since February 19, with the TRM at COP 3,675.29 and the SPOT closing at COP 3,668. March’s cumulative decline now stands at COP 91 or 2.42% — the strongest monthly move of Q1.
Trump extended the Iran energy-strike deadline by 10 days to April 6, calling talks “very well” on Truth Social. The extension partially eased oil fears, though WTI remained elevated near $94 after Thursday’s 4.6% surge.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| COLCAP Close | 2,212.65 | −0.93% |
| COLCAP ATH (Jan 27) | 2,562.00 | −13.63% |
| USD/COP TRM (Mar 27) | 3,675.29 | −0.36% |
| USD/COP SPOT Close | 3,668 | 1-month low |
| March TRM Move | — | −COP 91 (−2.42%) |
| BanRep Rate | 10.25% | +100 bps (Jan 30) |
| Ecopetrol Dividend | COP 121/share | −48% YoY |
| WTI Crude (Mar 26) | $94.48 | +4.6% |
| S&P 500 (Mar 27) | ~6,470 | −0.10% |
Live Company IntelligenceEcopetrol SA ADR — the full investor dossier
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport…
Net income declined to COL$8.4 tn in 2025, from COL$21.1 tn in 2023.
02 Equities
The Colombian peso exchange rate today reached its strongest level since mid-February, but the equity market failed to follow. COLCAP dropped −0.93% to 2,212.65, extending a two-session losing streak after Wednesday’s brief rally faded entirely. The index is now down 13.63% from its January all-time high. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
The Ecopetrol shareholder assembly on Friday was the session’s dominant catalyst. With a historic 97% quorum, the government used its majority stake to push the dividend to COP 121 per share — above the board’s COP 110 proposal but still 48% below the COP 214 paid in 2025. The assembly also approved a COP 21.14 trillion reserve for energy transition. Roa was met with boos and shouts of “fuera” from the floor, while ex-senator Robledo demanded his immediate resignation.
The Ecopetrol board meets again today, March 30, to revisit the Roa question. La Silla Vacía reported no resolution was reached last week, but USO president Ravelo escalated, calling the situation “potentially catastrophic” at the asamblea.
03 Currency
The TRM dropped to COP 3,675.29 — its lowest since February 19 and a COP 91 decline (−2.42%) from the start of March. The SPOT rate closed even lower at COP 3,668 per dollar. Noticias Caracol confirmed the move broke decisively below the COP 3,700 threshold that had held for most of the month.
Global66’s Rodrigo Lama told Noticias Caracol that de-escalation in the Middle East could push USD/COP toward COP 3,620–3,650, while an intensification of the conflict could drive it above COP 3,800 with oil at $110–120/barrel. BanRep’s 10.25% rate continues to anchor carry flows, making the peso one of the best-performing EM currencies year-to-date.
04 Technical Analysis — MSCI COLCAP Daily
The index opened at 2,233.40 — exactly at Thursday’s close — and immediately sold off, touching a session low of 2,185.60 before recovering marginally to 2,212.65. The long lower shadow shows buyers stepped in below 2,190, but the close remained below both the 2,226 and 2,215 support levels.
The MACD histogram at 7.94 is fading toward zero. RSI at 45.32/44.57 sits in no-man’s-land — neither oversold enough to attract bargain hunters nor strong enough to signal recovery. The 200-day SMA at approximately 1,999 remains far below, providing a structural floor.
05 Key Levels
| Level | COLCAP |
| Resistance 3 | 2,282.62 |
| Resistance 2 | 2,257.76 |
| Resistance 1 | 2,242.27 |
| Current Close | 2,212.65 |
| Support 1 | 2,205.62 |
| Support 2 | 2,128.61 |
| Support 3 | 1,998.97 |
06 Global Context
Wall Street was mixed on Friday — S&P 500 −0.10%, Dow +0.13% — after Trump extended the Iran strike deadline to April 6. Gold plunged 4% to $4,359 on Thursday while WTI surged 4.6% to $94.48. The 10-day extension gives markets a brief window but does not resolve the underlying Hormuz supply disruption.
07 Looking Ahead
Today’s Ecopetrol board meeting is the binary event for Colombian equities this week. A Roa removal would likely trigger a sharp Ecopetrol rally and lift the broader COLCAP; retention locks in the USO strike risk and could accelerate the selloff toward the 2,128 support.
The peso‘s relentless strength — now at one-month highs — continues to diverge from equities, confirming that foreign fixed-income flows are entering Colombia for the 10.25% carry while equity investors remain sidelined. The April 6 Iran deadline creates a new geopolitical event horizon for all LATAM energy-sensitive markets.
08 Verdict
Friday’s −0.93% decline marked a third consecutive losing session, dragging the index below the 2,215 support that had held since mid-March. The Ecopetrol asamblea delivered a higher dividend but deepened the governance crisis — hardly a confidence-building combination. RSI in the mid-40s and the fading MACD histogram offer no technical catalyst for a reversal.
Bias: Bearish. The peso is the lone bright spot. Equities are caught between a governance crisis at the index’s most important stock, an unresolved oil supply shock, and global risk aversion. Today’s board meeting is the last best hope for a catalyst before Q2.
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