Mexican Peso Breaks 18 as BMV Caps Worst Month Since Iran War Began
The Big Three
The Mexican peso broke above MXN 18 per dollar, closing at 18.12 with a 0.99% depreciation on Friday. The move caps four consecutive weeks above 18 and marks the currency’s weakest stretch since early March, driven by Banxico’s surprise rate cut and the war-driven oil spike.
The IPC fell −0.56% to 66,685.76, closing the week with a cumulative monthly loss of 6.61% — its worst month since the Iran war began. The Dow Jones officially entered correction territory, down 10% from its February all-time high.
Volaris and Viva Aerobus shareholders approved their merger on Thursday, creating a single low-cost carrier as Viva ceases to exist. The deal reshapes Mexico’s domestic aviation landscape and adds a consumer consolidation play to the IPC via the recently rebalanced index.
01 Market Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Change |
| IPC Close | 66,685.76 | −0.56% |
| IPC March | — | −6.61% |
| USD/MXN Close | 18.12 | −0.99% (peso) |
| Banxico Rate | 6.75% | −25 bps (Mar 26) |
| Trade Balance (Feb) | −$1.09B | improved |
| DXY | — | +0.22% |
| S&P 500 | ~6,370 | −1.67% |
| Dow Jones | — | −1.72% (correction) |
02 Equities
The Mexican peso exchange rate today closed at MXN 18.12, consolidating its position above the psychologically important 18 level as the IPC dropped −0.56% to 66,685.76. The March loss of 6.61% makes it the worst month for Mexican equities since the war began. Expansión noted the month erased all gains built during the first two months of the year. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Mexico’s stock market and Latin American financial markets.
Wall Street was hammered: the Dow fell −1.72% to confirm it has entered correction territory — down 10% from its February peak. The S&P 500 lost −1.67% and the Nasdaq shed −2.15%. XTB analyst Kathleen Brooks said investors are “losing faith in Trump’s ability to end the war and close a deal with Iran.”
On the corporate front, the Volaris-Viva Aerobus merger was approved by shareholders on Thursday, creating Mexico’s dominant low-cost carrier. Viva Aerobus will cease to exist as a separate entity, with the combined operation expected to reshape domestic pricing and route competition.
03 Currency
The peso weakened −0.99% to MXN 18.12 per dollar, with the DXY gaining 0.22% on safe-haven demand. The peso has now been above 18 for four consecutive weeks — a level it had not sustained since early March. Lombard Odier’s Florian Ielpo warned that the inflationary threat from energy prices “varies considerably from one economy to another,” singling out net importers like Mexico.
Banxico’s surprise cut to 6.75% on Thursday continues to reverberate. The narrowing interest-rate differential with the Fed — which is holding at 4.75–5.00% — has reduced the peso’s carry advantage, removing a key pillar of currency support. Mexico’s February trade deficit improved to −$1.09 billion from −$1.46 billion, a mild positive.
04 Technical Analysis — S&P/BMV IPC Daily
The index opened at 67,105, tested 67,424 to the upside early, then sold off to a session low of 66,547 before a marginal recovery to 66,686. The candle is a bearish continuation pattern with a lower close on narrowing range, suggesting sellers are running low on momentum but buyers are absent.
The MACD histogram at −882.11 remains deeply negative, though the MACD line (85.49) has turned marginally positive — a tentative sign of stabilization. RSI at 46.64/39.29 stays below 50, keeping the bearish posture intact. The 200-day SMA at approximately 62,718 is the next major support if 65,932 fails.
05 Key Levels
| Level | IPC |
| Resistance 3 | 67,946.33 |
| Resistance 2 | 67,176.08 |
| Resistance 1 | 66,930.01 |
| Current Close | 66,685.76 |
| Support 1 | 66,024.23 |
| Support 2 | 65,932.36 |
| Support 3 | 63,326.08 |
06 Global Context
Friday’s Wall Street selloff was the worst of the week — Dow −1.72% (now in correction), S&P 500 −1.67%, Nasdaq −2.15%. Trump extended the Iran energy-strike deadline to April 6 but markets remained skeptical. After one month of war, the S&P 500 is down 7.41% and the Nasdaq 7.59%.
07 Looking Ahead
April opens under a cloud. The Iran deadline extension to April 6 creates a binary event for oil and risk assets. If Hormuz reopens, the peso could rally sharply below 18 and the IPC could reclaim 68,000. If talks collapse and strikes resume, oil above $100 would deepen the stagflation trade.
The Volaris-Viva merger creates a near-term corporate catalyst as the market prices consolidation benefits. Banxico‘s next moves remain uncertain — the split 3-2 vote suggests the board itself is divided on whether the cut was premature given inflationary pressures.
08 Verdict
The IPC’s −6.61% March caps the ugliest month for Mexican equities since the war began. The peso above 18, Banxico cutting into an inflation spike, and the Dow entering correction all point to a market that has repriced from optimism to defensive positioning. The MACD line turning marginally positive is a first tentative sign of stabilization, but RSI below 50 keeps the trend bearish.
Bias: Bearish. The April 6 Iran deadline is the only catalyst that could reverse the slide. Until then, the peso’s weakness and the IPC’s broken March trend favor caution. The 65,932 support is the line in the sand — a break targets 63,326.
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Iran War and Hormuz Crisis 2026: Oil, Latin America and the Global Fallout
Deep Dive
For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
In depth
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