Angola’s Inflation Rate Set to Climb, Says Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics has updated its inflation forecast for Angola, and they now project a rise to 22.7% by mid-2024.

This change follows the report of an 18.19% year-over-year inflation rate in November. This rate marks a 2.3% increase from October.

The revision largely results from the Angolan kwanza’s devaluation. It reached a low of nearly 833 per dollar, boosting food inflation.

Additionally, reduced fuel subsidies are increasing transportation costs.

Oxford Economics examined Angola’s National Institute of Statistics’ November data. They found inflation at its highest since August 2022.

It has been rising for seven consecutive months. Analysts predict a continual rise. They estimate it will hit 18.9% by this year’s end, higher than the previously forecasted 18%.

The firm expects further inflation increases. By the end of June 2024, they anticipate a rate of 22.7%, up from the same period last year.

This increase is mainly due to the weakening exchange rate impacting imported food costs.

Exchange rate between 830 and 845 kwanzas per dollar

In November, Angola experienced a year-over-year price increase of 18.19%. This was a 2.1% rise from October’s figures.

The food and non-alcoholic beverages sector contributed significantly to this surge, adding 1.53 percentage points.

The National Consumer Price Index in Angola rose 2.21% from October. Luanda saw a larger increase of 3.01%, while Moxico recorded the least change at 1.28%.

In terms of monetary policy, Oxford Economics forecasts the National Bank of Angola will keep the exchange rate between 830 and 845 kwanzas per dollar until next year’s end.

They also predict a possible rise in the benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points in early 2024. This is due to ongoing inflation and a modest economic recovery.

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These sources often cover economic forecasts and analyses, particularly regarding Angola’s inflation and monetary policy.