Analysis: An Evangelical Vice-President For Bolsonaro?

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro has conceded to allies that he may have an evangelical as his vice-president on the 2022 ballot.

He holds in the religious some some of the most significant endorsers of his government, and who were instrumental in his election campaign. Some leaders even ceded their temples for political rallies.

The three cabinet ministers-pastors, who lead the Human Rights, Education, and Justice Ministries, are evidence of the President’s gratitude. But Bolsonaro wants to amplify this symbiosis.

Even when clothed as a “peace-and-love Bolsonaro” and restrained in his statements since the arrest of the family’s former handyman Fabrício Queiroz, the President will bet heavily on the conservative agenda as a tool to be reelected.

According to government allies, the most plausible option now is to redirect the polarization narrative through the traditional agenda, which favors a pastor in the next election. This would remove Vice-President Hamilton Mourão from the race, whose relationship with Bolsonaro has had more low than high points over the past 20 months of government.

The nods to the evangelical sector are not new, and extend beyond the allocation of positions in the government’s top echelon. In addition to always stressing that the first lady professes the faith, the President, who says he is Catholic, has already pledged a position as a Justice of the Supreme Court (STF) for a “terribly evangelical” person, like Pastor André Mendonça, the current Minister of Justice.

It turns out that other candidates in Brasília’s favorite guessing game are being given consideration for the first position to open this November, when Justice Celso de Mello must retire. One possibility is the chief judge of Brazil’s second-highest court, the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), João Otávio de Noronha, who was responsible for granting Queiroz house arrest during the court’s recess.

According to government allies, this deferment in the appointment of an evangelical justice to the STF is another factor that increases the likelihood of a pastor as vice-president in 2022.

It would be a way to offset the loss of the post at the highest court in the country. André Mendonça is said to have lost steam in the race for the second position, which will open next year, due to the creation of files within the Ministry of Justice against political opponents – a case disclosed by UOL journalist Rubens Valente.

Everything in politics changes very quickly. As taught by the late Senator Magalhães Pinto, a former Governor of Minas Gerais, it’s like a cloud. “You look and it’s one way. You look again and it’s already changed.” But the recent turbulent winds against the government, when the President was on the verge of being impeached, led to this scenario, in which the evangelicals and the centrão [congressional bloc] will be increasingly used as a crutch.

Another example of the President’s fondness of the churches was the request for the tax reform, currently in Congress, to preserve the tax benefits granted to religious temples. The replacement of the PIS and COFINS (Program of Social Integration and Contribution for the Financing of Social Security) by the Social Contribution on Operations with Goods and Services (CBS) will not affect the constitutional immunity against taxes enjoyed by churches.

This means that churches will continue to enjoy this financial privilege. Internally, within the government, the aim is to try, if possible, to extend aid to pastors during the reform process.

This is the reelection mode emerging from Bolsonaro’s head, ever obsessed with the issue, and spreading throughout the government. All this with one – and only one – goal in mind: to preserve the loyalty of evangelicals, who today represent almost 30 percent of the electorate in Brazil. According to the President, 2022 is right around the corner.

Source: Veja