Waning Confidence: Lula Faces Growing Skepticism in Brazilian Congress

A Genial/Quaest poll conducted in May 2024 shows declining support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva among Brazilian deputies.

Discontent is rising; 42% now disapprove of Lula’s administration, up 9 points from August 2023.

Support for Lula dropped from 35% to 32%, while neutral opinions also fell. Only 1% of deputies were undecided, emphasizing a decisive shift in perception.

The study categorized deputies based on their alignment with the executive branch:

• 49% support the government,
• 28% are in opposition, and
• 21% remain independent.

Approval among Lula’s allies decreased slightly from 74% to 70%.

The survey highlights tension between the executive and legislature. Forty-three percent view their interaction with the government negatively, up 2 points.

Meanwhile, satisfaction with government attention rose from 20% to 27%. Concerning fiscal policies, 80% doubt the government will achieve a zero-deficit by 2024.

When discussing potential fiscal adjustments, 44% favor setting the deficit cap at up to 0.5%.

This poll signals shifting political dynamics within Brazil, reflecting growing legislative challenges that could affect Lula’s policy implementation.

The data collection, combining in-person and online surveys, provides a comprehensive view with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

As Brazil faces elections, understanding these dynamics is key to navigating its political landscape, one of South America’s largest democracies.

Background – Waning Confidence: Lula Faces Growing Skepticism in Brazilian Congress

Lula faces setbacks not only in Congress but also among the populace.

At the beginning of May, the National Transport Confederation (CNT) revealed a significant drop in President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval ratings among Brazilians.

This decline reflects broader challenges in his political standing.

Only 37.4% of those surveyed now view his government favorably, marking a noticeable fall from the previous 42.7%.

Conversely, the proportion of negative evaluations has increased to 30.5%.

Simultaneously, President Lula’s personal approval has dropped from 55% to 50.7%. His disapproval rate has escalated accordingly, from 40% to 43.7%.

This decline coincides with growing public anxiety over security issues and the impact of drug trafficking and corruption.

Public opinion on the economic leadership of Lula’s administration shows significant polarization.

Download the poll results here.